| |
Justin Jefferson Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 18
Minnesota Vikings vs Chicago Bears
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Right now, Justin Jefferson Receiving Yards Prop is Over/Under 98.5 (-115/-115).
The money is on the Over: it opened 95.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 98.5 @ -115.
|
|
|
|
|
|
PROS:
|
|
In terms of playing time, Jefferson ranks in the #95 percentile among wide receivers. He has been on the field for 89.2% of his team's snaps this season.In terms of route running, Jefferson ranks in the #98 percentile among wide receivers. He has run a route on 96.2% of Minnesota's dropbacks this season.In terms of earning targets, Jefferson ranks in the #99 percentile among wide receivers. The QB has looked his way on 31.8% of passes this season.Jefferson ranks in the #79 percentile and has put up 9.24 yards per target this season.Minnesota's game this week will be played in a dome. That means two things: zero wind and a greater chance to catch passes.The Chicago Bears have allowed 8.71 yards per target to opposing wide receivers this year: #25-highest among NFL opponents.As a unit, the Bears cornerbacks rank #25 in pass coverage.In a neutral context, Minnesota has run the #8-fastest paced offense this season.Minnesota's offensive has kept pressure off the quarterback for 2.39 seconds on average this year (#5-most in the NFL), influencing his ability to scan for open receivers.Defenses leave more areas of the field open to the pass when they stack the box to stop the run. The Vikings have faced the #3-most stacked boxes in the league this year (20.8%).
|
|
|
|
|
|
CONS:
|
|
The Bears's pass defense ranks #8-best in the NFL against wide receivers, allowing 144 yards per game this season.The Vikings enter as a 3.5 point favorite. This indicates a rushing game script.THE BLITZ projects Minnesota to drop back to pass on 58.2% of their plays in this game (#23-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.Minnesota's O-Line grades out as the #30-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season, which impacts how much time their QB has to find Jefferson open.Minnesota has run play-action on 23.3% of their passes this year, #25-most in football. Play action passes lead to a higher completion rate as the defense bites on the run.
|
|
|
|
|
|
NEUTRAL:
|
|
This week, THE BLITZ projects Jefferson for a 1.3% higher target share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.Jefferson's 64.8% completion rate marks him in the #48 percentile among receivers.The Chicago Bears rank #15-highest in the league in Completion% to opposing wide receivers this year at 65.7%.As a unit, the Bears safeties rank #18 in pass coverage.The Minnesota Vikings are projected to run 61.9 plays in this matchup, the #20-most on the game slate.In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 60.5% of the time (#17 in the NFL).
|
|
|
|
|
|
PROJECTION:
|
|
THE BLITZ projects Jefferson to exceed his player prop total 50.9% of the time. He projects for 100.2 Receiving Yards (on average) in this matchup.
While both sides have negative EV, THE BLITZ projects the OVER to offer better odds. The expected value on the OVER is -$5.48 with a negative ROI of -5%.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
ABOUT WRITENOW™
Create optimizable, relevant sports betting content at scale by automating your content generation process with WriteNow™. Designed and built by betting experts, WriteNow™ uses up-to-the-minute market data to develop stories that provide real-time betting insights and tell the story behind the numbers. WriteNow™ solves all your written content needs without the expense of an editorial team. The future of sports betting content is WriteNow™.
|
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
|
| |
|
|
|
