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Justin Jefferson Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 16
Minnesota Vikings vs Los Angeles Rams
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Justin Jefferson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 82.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 85.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 82.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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Jefferson has been on the field for 72.9% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #75 percentile among wide receivers.He has run a route on 95.5% of Minnesota's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #97 percentile among wide receivers.His target share this season has been 30.0% -- #99 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.In terms of efficiency, he has put up 9.59 yards per target this season, ranking in the #85 percentile.This game will be played in a dome, meaning zero wind and a higher chance to complete passes.The Minnesota Vikings have had the #11-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Vikings project to run 66.1 plays in this contest, the #2-most of the week.Minnesota is a 3.0 point underdog, indicating a passing game script.This offenses projects to pass 64.0% of the time in this contest (#7 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.The Vikings offensive line has given the QB 2.39 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#5-most time in the league).Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Minnesota has faced the #3-most stacked boxes in the league this year (20.8%).
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CONS:
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Opposing wideouts have put up the #27-most yards per target (7.53) against the Rams this season.Los Angeles Rams cornerbacks rank as the #2 unit in pass coverage.Jefferson's offensive line has been #28 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Minnesota Vikings have run play-action on 23.3% of their passes this year, #25-most in the NFL.
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NEUTRAL:
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Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Jefferson is projected for -1.5% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #39 percentile among wide receivers.Jefferson has been in the #55 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 65.8% completion rate.Los Angeles's defense has allowed 152 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#20-most in football).The Rams have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 66.3% of their targets this season, (#17-most in the league).Los Angeles Rams safeties rank as the #20 unit in pass coverage.This offense passes the ball 59.8% of the time in a neutral context (#19 in the NFL).
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 100.3 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 60.5% of the time.
THE BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $14.97. It's return on investment would yeild 13%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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