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Justin Jefferson Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 15
Chicago Bears vs Minnesota Vikings
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Justin Jefferson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 102.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 94.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 102.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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Jefferson has been on the field for 71.7% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #75 percentile among wide receivers.He has run a route on 95.2% of Minnesota's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #97 percentile among wide receivers.His target share this season has been 29.2% -- #98 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.In terms of efficiency, he has put up 9.79 yards per target this season, ranking in the #85 percentile.Opposing wideouts have put up the #5-most yards per target (9.21) against the Bears this season.Chicago Bears cornerbacks rank as the #30 unit in pass coverage.The Minnesota Vikings have had the #11-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Vikings offensive line has given the QB 2.39 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#5-most time in the league).Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Minnesota has faced the #3-most stacked boxes in the league this year (20.8%).
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CONS:
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Minnesota is a 7.0 point favorite, indicating an extreme rushing game script.This offenses projects to pass 54.0% of the time in this contest (#28 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.Jefferson's offensive line has been #31 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Minnesota Vikings have run play-action on 23.3% of their passes this year, #25-most in the NFL.
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NEUTRAL:
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Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Jefferson is projected for 2.8% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #79 percentile among wide receivers.Jefferson has been in the #60 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 66.8% completion rate.Chicago's defense has allowed 167 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#11-most in football).The Bears have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 67.8% of their targets this season, (#11-most in the league).Chicago Bears safeties rank as the #22 unit in pass coverage.The Vikings project to run 63.3 plays in this contest, the #15-most of the week.This offense passes the ball 60.1% of the time in a neutral context (#20 in the NFL).
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 89.0 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 42.3% of the time.
THE BLITZ believes there is positive value on the UNDER with an expected value of $9.08. It's return on investment would yeild 8%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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