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Justin Jefferson

Justin Jefferson Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 14

Minnesota Vikings vs Pittsburgh Steelers
Justin Jefferson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 93.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 91.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 93.5 @ -115.
  • Jefferson has been on the field for 69.9% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #73 percentile among wide receivers.
  • He has run a route on 94.9% of Minnesota's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #96 percentile among wide receivers.
  • His target share this season has been 27.7% -- #97 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
  • Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Jefferson is projected for 3.0% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #89 percentile among wide receivers.
  • In terms of efficiency, he has put up 10.46 yards per target this season, ranking in the #95 percentile.
  • Jefferson has been in the #73 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 70.0% completion rate.
  • This game will be played in a dome, meaning zero wind and a higher chance to complete passes.
  • The Steelers have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 68.0% of their targets this season, (#10-most in the league).
  • Pittsburgh Steelers cornerbacks rank as the #29 unit in pass coverage.
  • Pittsburgh Steelers safeties rank as the #32 unit in pass coverage.
  • The Minnesota Vikings have had the #10-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.
  • The Vikings offensive line has given the QB 2.39 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#5-most time in the league).
  • Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Minnesota has faced the #3-most stacked boxes in the league this year (20.8%).

  • CONS:
  • Minnesota is a 3.5 point favorite, indicating a rushing game script.
  • Jefferson's offensive line has been #31 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.
  • Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Minnesota Vikings have run play-action on 23.3% of their passes this year, #25-most in the NFL.

  • Pittsburgh's defense has allowed 157 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#17-most in football).
  • Opposing wideouts have put up the #12-most yards per target (8.65) against the Steelers this season.
  • The Vikings project to run 63.3 plays in this contest, the #12-most of the week.
  • This offense passes the ball 60.1% of the time in a neutral context (#20 in the NFL).
  • This offenses projects to pass 59.7% of the time in this contest (#16 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

    THE BLITZ sees him putting up 112.7 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 60.4% of the time.

    The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $14.82. It's return on investment would yeild 13%.

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