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Justin Jefferson Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 13
Detroit Lions vs Minnesota Vikings
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Justin Jefferson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 86.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 83.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 86.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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Jefferson has been on the field for 73.9% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #76 percentile among wide receivers.He has run a route on 94.8% of Minnesota's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #97 percentile among wide receivers.His target share this season has been 27.0% -- #93 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.In terms of efficiency, he has put up 10.49 yards per target this season, ranking in the #92 percentile.Jefferson has been in the #70 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 69.1% completion rate.Opposing wideouts have put up the #4-most yards per target (9.39) against the Lions this season.Detroit Lions cornerbacks rank as the #30 unit in pass coverage.Detroit Lions safeties rank as the #31 unit in pass coverage.The Minnesota Vikings have had the #8-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Vikings offensive line has given the QB 2.39 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#5-most time in the league).Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Minnesota has faced the #3-most stacked boxes in the league this year (20.8%).
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CONS:
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The Lions have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 64.8% of their targets this season, (#24-most in the league).Minnesota is a 7.0 point favorite, indicating an extreme rushing game script.Jefferson's offensive line has been #31 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Minnesota Vikings have run play-action on 23.3% of their passes this year, #25-most in the NFL.
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NEUTRAL:
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Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Jefferson is projected for 0.1% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #67 percentile among wide receivers.Detroit's defense has allowed 156 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#19-most in football).The Vikings project to run 62.1 plays in this contest, the #19-most of the week.This offense passes the ball 59.8% of the time in a neutral context (#21 in the NFL).This offenses projects to pass 57.2% of the time in this contest (#21 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 96.3 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 55.8% of the time.
The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $4.99. It's return on investment would yeild 4%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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