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Justin Jefferson

Justin Jefferson Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 13

Detroit Lions vs Minnesota Vikings
Justin Jefferson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 86.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 83.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 86.5 @ -115.
  • Jefferson has been on the field for 73.9% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #76 percentile among wide receivers.
  • He has run a route on 94.8% of Minnesota's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #97 percentile among wide receivers.
  • His target share this season has been 27.0% -- #93 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
  • In terms of efficiency, he has put up 10.49 yards per target this season, ranking in the #92 percentile.
  • Jefferson has been in the #70 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 69.1% completion rate.
  • Opposing wideouts have put up the #4-most yards per target (9.39) against the Lions this season.
  • Detroit Lions cornerbacks rank as the #30 unit in pass coverage.
  • Detroit Lions safeties rank as the #31 unit in pass coverage.
  • The Minnesota Vikings have had the #8-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.
  • The Vikings offensive line has given the QB 2.39 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#5-most time in the league).
  • Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Minnesota has faced the #3-most stacked boxes in the league this year (20.8%).

  • CONS:
  • The Lions have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 64.8% of their targets this season, (#24-most in the league).
  • Minnesota is a 7.0 point favorite, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
  • Jefferson's offensive line has been #31 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.
  • Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Minnesota Vikings have run play-action on 23.3% of their passes this year, #25-most in the NFL.

  • Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Jefferson is projected for 0.1% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #67 percentile among wide receivers.
  • Detroit's defense has allowed 156 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#19-most in football).
  • The Vikings project to run 62.1 plays in this contest, the #19-most of the week.
  • This offense passes the ball 59.8% of the time in a neutral context (#21 in the NFL).
  • This offenses projects to pass 57.2% of the time in this contest (#21 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

    THE BLITZ sees him putting up 96.3 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 55.8% of the time.

    The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $4.99. It's return on investment would yeild 4%.

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