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Justin Jefferson Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 12
San Francisco 49ers vs Minnesota Vikings
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Justin Jefferson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 85.5 (-115/-115).
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PROS:
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Jefferson has been on the field for 77.6% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #79 percentile among wide receivers.He has run a route on 94.5% of Minnesota's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #96 percentile among wide receivers.His target share this season has been 27.1% -- #94 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.In terms of efficiency, he has put up 10.43 yards per target this season, ranking in the #95 percentile.Jefferson has been in the #71 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 71.0% completion rate.The 49ers have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 68.2% of their targets this season, (#10-most in the league).Minnesota is a 3.0 point underdog, indicating a passing game script.The Vikings offensive line has given the QB 2.38 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#4-most time in the league).Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Minnesota has faced the #3-most stacked boxes in the league this year (20.1%).
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CONS:
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This offense passes the ball 59.7% of the time in a neutral context (#24 in the NFL).Jefferson's offensive line has been #32 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Minnesota Vikings have run play-action on 23.8% of their passes this year, #23-most in the NFL.
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NEUTRAL:
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Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Jefferson is projected for -0.1% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #59 percentile among wide receivers.San Francisco's defense has allowed 157 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#19-most in football).Opposing wideouts have put up the #17-most yards per target (8.51) against the 49ers this season.San Francisco 49ers cornerbacks rank as the #22 unit in pass coverage.San Francisco 49ers safeties rank as the #12 unit in pass coverage.The Minnesota Vikings have had the #12-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Vikings project to run 62.4 plays in this contest, the #17-most of the week.This offenses projects to pass 59.8% of the time in this contest (#16 in the NFL) based on matchup dynamics.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 85.1 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 49.8% of the time.
The BLITZ believes the UNDER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the UNDER is -$7.01 and with a negative ROI of -6%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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