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Justin Herbert

Justin Herbert Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 16

Houston Texans vs Los Angeles Chargers
Justin Herbert Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 264.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 269.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 264.5 @ -115.
  • Herbert has passed for 284 yards per game this year, #5-best in the league.
  • Los Angeles has played in the #5-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year, which artificially saps a quarterback's efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.
  • The Los Angeles Chargers have had the #6-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.
  • The Chargers project to run 65.0 plays in this contest, the #6-most of the week.
  • This offense passes the ball 67.0% of the time in a neutral context (#4 in the NFL).
  • The Chargers offensive line has given Justin Herbert 2.40 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#7-best in football).
  • Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Los Angeles Chargers have run play-action on 29.3% of their passes this year, #8-most in the NFL.
  • Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Los Angeles have faced the #5-most stacked boxes in the league this year (19.4%).
  • The Houston Texans defense ranks #31-best in football in Yards per Target at 8.47.
  • Houston's cornerbacks grade out as the #31-best in pass coverage this year.
  • Houston's safeties grade out as the #32-best in pass coverage this year.
  • Texans linebackers have ranked #26 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.

  • CONS:
  • Los Angeles is a 13.0 point favorite, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
  • Texans defensive ends have ranked #5 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.

  • He's been the #17-best in terms of Completion%, completing passes at a 66.2% clip.
  • Efficiency-wise, Herbert has been #15 in the NFL this season, averaging 7.33 yards per target.
  • This offenses projects to pass 61.0% of the time in this contest (#14 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • Justin Herbert's offensive line has been #14 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.
  • The Houston Texans enter this game with the #19-best pass defense this season, allowing 255 yards per game through the air.
  • The Texans have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 71.6% of their targets, ranking #22-best in the NFL.
  • Houston's linebackers grade out as the #22-best in pass coverage this year.
  • Texans defensive tackles have ranked #11 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
  • The Houston Texans have stacked the box on 15.9% of their plays this season, #11-most in the NFL. A stacked box makes quarterbacks more efficient, while a light box makes it more difficult for them to complete passes.

    THE BLITZ sees Herbert putting up 281.7 Passing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 56.1% of the time.

    THE BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $5.66. Its return on investment would yield +5%.

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