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Justin Herbert Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 16
Houston Texans vs Los Angeles Chargers
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Justin Herbert Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 264.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 269.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 264.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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Herbert has passed for 284 yards per game this year, #5-best in the league.Los Angeles has played in the #5-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year, which artificially saps a quarterback's efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.The Los Angeles Chargers have had the #6-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Chargers project to run 65.0 plays in this contest, the #6-most of the week.This offense passes the ball 67.0% of the time in a neutral context (#4 in the NFL).The Chargers offensive line has given Justin Herbert 2.40 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#7-best in football).Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Los Angeles Chargers have run play-action on 29.3% of their passes this year, #8-most in the NFL.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Los Angeles have faced the #5-most stacked boxes in the league this year (19.4%).The Houston Texans defense ranks #31-best in football in Yards per Target at 8.47.Houston's cornerbacks grade out as the #31-best in pass coverage this year.Houston's safeties grade out as the #32-best in pass coverage this year.Texans linebackers have ranked #26 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
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CONS:
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Los Angeles is a 13.0 point favorite, indicating an extreme rushing game script.Texans defensive ends have ranked #5 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
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NEUTRAL:
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He's been the #17-best in terms of Completion%, completing passes at a 66.2% clip.Efficiency-wise, Herbert has been #15 in the NFL this season, averaging 7.33 yards per target.This offenses projects to pass 61.0% of the time in this contest (#14 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.Justin Herbert's offensive line has been #14 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.The Houston Texans enter this game with the #19-best pass defense this season, allowing 255 yards per game through the air.The Texans have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 71.6% of their targets, ranking #22-best in the NFL.Houston's linebackers grade out as the #22-best in pass coverage this year.Texans defensive tackles have ranked #11 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.The Houston Texans have stacked the box on 15.9% of their plays this season, #11-most in the NFL. A stacked box makes quarterbacks more efficient, while a light box makes it more difficult for them to complete passes.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees Herbert putting up 281.7 Passing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 56.1% of the time.
THE BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $5.66. Its return on investment would yield +5%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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