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Jonathan Taylor

Jonathan Taylor Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 13

Houston Texans vs Indianapolis Colts
Jonathan Taylor Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 106.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 104.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 106.5 @ -115.
  • The Indianapolis Colts offensive line has ranked #6 in the NFL when it comes to run blocking this season.
  • He has been on the field for 64.5% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #95 percentile among running backs.
  • He has received 66.0% of Indianapolis's carries this year -- #6 percentile when it comes to running backs.
  • Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Taylor is projected for 12.0% more of his team's carry share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks among the biggest increases among running backs this week.
  • Indianapolis is a 10.0 point favorite, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
  • This offenses projects to runs 45.0% of the time in this contest (#5 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • The Houston Texans have ranked #30 against the run this year, holding opponents to 139 yards per game on the ground.
  • In terms of efficiency, Houston's defense has allowed 4.80 yards per carry to opposing rushers (#29-least in football).
  • Texans defensive ends have ranked #23 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
  • Texans linebackers have ranked #24 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
  • Texans safeties have ranked #29 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.

  • CONS:
  • Taylor has been the #2-leading rusher this season, tallying 100 yards per game on the ground.
  • Indianapolis has played in the #3-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year. Teams tend to run the ball more in windy conditions, artificially inflating their play-calling Run%, which should balance back out under normal conditions.
  • The Indianapolis Colts have had the #29-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.
  • Texans defensive tackles have ranked #7 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.

  • The Colts project to run 62.8 total plays in this contest, the #14-most of the week.
  • This offense runs the ball 38.4% of the time in a neutral context (#17 in the NFL), and they project to run 38.4% of the time in this contest.
  • Stacking the box with extra defenders is a common strategy defenses uses to stop the run, and the Indianapolis Colts have faced a stacked box 13.6% of the time this season -- #18-most in football.
  • The Houston Texans have stacked the box with 8 or more defenders 15.9% of the time this season, ranking as the #11 most in the league.

    THE BLITZ sees him putting up 131.2 Rushing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 61.5% of the time.

    The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $17.18. It's return on investment would yeild 15%.

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