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Joe Burrow Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 13
Cincinnati Bengals vs Los Angeles Chargers
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Joe Burrow Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 251.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 243.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 251.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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He's been the #8-best in terms of Completion%, completing passes at a 68.9% clip.Efficiency-wise, Burrow has been #7 in the NFL this season, averaging 7.83 yards per target.The Bengals project to run 63.7 plays in this contest, the #9-most of the week.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Cincinnati have faced the #8-most stacked boxes in the league this year (#16.5%).The Los Angeles Chargers have had the #26-best group of cornerbacks this season in terms of their pass coverage.Chargers defensive ends have ranked #31 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
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CONS:
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Cincinnati has played in the #20-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year, which artificially saps a quarterback's efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.The Cincinnati Bengals have had the #30-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.Cincinnati is a 3.0 point favorite, indicating a rushing game script.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Cincinnati Bengals have run play-action on 23.8% of their passes this year, #23-most in the NFL.The Los Angeles Chargers enter this game with the #3-best pass defense this season, allowing 214 yards per game through the air.Los Angeles's defense has been #9-best in terms of passing efficiency, allowing 7.49 yards per target to opposing signal-callers.The Los Angeles Chargers have had the #5-best group of safeties this season in terms of their pass coverage.Chargers defensive tackles have ranked #2 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.Chargers linebackers have ranked #2 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
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NEUTRAL:
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Burrow has passed for 241 yards per game this year, #17-best in the league.This offense passes the ball 60.4% of the time in a neutral context (#19 in the NFL).This offenses projects to pass 57.4% of the time in this contest (#20 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.Joe Burrow's offensive line has been #21 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.The Bengals offensive line has given Joe Burrow 2.42 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers.The Chargers have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 71.4% of their targets, ranking #19 in the NFL.The Los Angeles Chargers have had the #11-best group of linebackers this season in terms of their pass coverage.The Los Angeles Chargers have stacked the box on 15.6% of their plays this season, #13-most in the NFL. A stacked box makes quarterbacks more efficient, while a light box makes it more difficult for them to complete passes.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 258.5 Passing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 52.6% of the time.
The BLITZ believes the OVER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the OVER is -$1.97 and with a negative ROI of -2%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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