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Jimmy Garoppolo Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 12
San Francisco 49ers vs Minnesota Vikings
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Jimmy Garoppolo Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 251.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 248.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 251.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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He's been the #8-best in terms of Completion%, completing passes at a 67.7% clip.Efficiency-wise, Garoppolo has been #3 in the NFL this season, averaging 8.11 yards per target.San Francisco has played in the #3-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year, which artificially saps a quarterback's efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.Jimmy Garoppolo's offensive line has been #5 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The San Francisco 49ers have run play-action on 29.5% of their passes this year, #9-most in the NFL.Minnesota's defense has been #26-best in terms of passing efficiency, allowing 8.24 yards per target to opposing signal-callers.The Minnesota Vikings have had the #30-best group of cornerbacks this season in terms of their pass coverage.Minnesota's defensive front has pressured opposing quarterbacks 3 seconds after the snap, on average, ranking #27-quickest in the NFL.
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CONS:
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The San Francisco 49ers have had the #26-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.San Francisco is a 3.0-point favorite, indicating a rushing game script.This offense passes the ball 58.7% of the time in a neutral context (#25 in the NFL).This offenses projects to pass 56.7% of the time in this contest (#25 in the NFL) based on matchup dynamics.The Vikings have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 67.5% of their targets, ranking #7 in the NFL.The Minnesota Vikings have had the #10-best group of safeties this season in terms of their pass coverage.The Minnesota Vikings have had the #1-best group of linebackers this season in terms of their pass coverage.Vikings defensive tackles have ranked #5 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
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NEUTRAL:
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Garoppolo has passed for 229 yards per game this year, #20-best in the league.The 49ers project to run 63.0 plays in this contest, the #11-most of the week.The 49ers offensive line has given Jimmy Garoppolo 2.48 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and San Francisco have faced the #19-most stacked boxes in the league this year (#13.5%).The Minnesota Vikings enter this game with the #21-best pass defense this season, allowing 266 yards per game through the air.Vikings defensive ends have ranked #17 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.Vikings linebackers have ranked #15 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.The Minnesota Vikings have stacked the box on 16.1% of their plays this season, #11-most in the NFL. A stacked box makes quarterbacks more efficient, while a light box makes it more difficult for them to complete passes.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 256.1 Passing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 51.7% of the time.
The BLITZ believes the OVER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the OVER is -$3.87 and with a negative ROI of -3%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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