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Jeff Wilson Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 13
Seattle Seahawks vs San Francisco 49ers
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Jeff Wilson Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 18.5 (-105/-130) with an implied projection of 17.3 yards.
The money has been on the Under as it opened 22.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 18.5 @ -130.
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PROS:
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The 49ers project to run 64.0 total plays in this contest, the #6-most of the week.San Francisco is a 3.0 point favorite, indicating a rushing game script.This offense runs the ball 42.5% of the time in a neutral context (#3 in the NFL), and they project to run 42.5% of the time in this contest.This offenses projects to runs 42.9% of the time in this contest (#7 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.Stacking the box with extra defenders is a common strategy defenses uses to stop the run, and the San Francisco 49ers have faced a stacked box 10.5% of the time this season -- #26-most in football.
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CONS:
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The San Francisco 49ers offensive line has ranked #31 in the NFL when it comes to run blocking this season.Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Wilson is projected for -15.6% more of his team's carry share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks among the biggest increases among running backs this week.San Francisco has played in the #3-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year. Teams tend to run the ball more in windy conditions, artificially inflating their play-calling Run%, which should balance back out under normal conditions.The San Francisco 49ers have had the #27-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.In terms of efficiency, Seattle's defense has allowed 4.00 yards per carry to opposing rushers (#5-least in football).Seahawks defensive tackles have ranked #2 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Seahawks linebackers have ranked #4 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Seahawks safeties have ranked #10 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.The Seattle Seahawks have stacked the box with 8 or more defenders 20.1% of the time this season, ranking as the #4 most in the league.
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NEUTRAL:
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The Seattle Seahawks have ranked #22 against the run this year, holding opponents to 124 yards per game on the ground.Seahawks defensive ends have ranked #18 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 15.0 Rushing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 44.6% of the time.
The BLITZ believes the UNDER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the UNDER is -$2.49 and with a negative ROI of -2%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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