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Jarvis Landry

Jarvis Landry Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 16

Green Bay Packers vs Cleveland Browns
Jarvis Landry Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 49.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 47.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 49.5 @ -115.
  • Landry has been on the field for 69.2% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #71 percentile among wide receivers.
  • He has run a route on 75.6% of Cleveland's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #69 percentile among wide receivers.
  • His target share this season has been 23.4% -- #88 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
  • Landry has been in the #72 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 69.4% completion rate.
  • Cleveland has played in the #1-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year, which saps receiver efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.
  • Cleveland is a 7.5 point underdog, indicating an extreme passing game script.
  • Landry's offensive line has been #8 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.
  • Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Cleveland has faced the #7-most stacked boxes in the league this year (16.7%).

  • CONS:
  • In terms of efficiency, he has put up 7.09 yards per target this season, ranking in the #23 percentile.
  • Green Bay's defense has allowed 146 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#24-most in football).
  • Opposing wideouts have put up the #28-most yards per target (7.51) against the Packers this season.
  • The Packers have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 58.7% of their targets this season, (#31-most in the league).
  • The Cleveland Browns have had the #29-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.
  • The Browns project to run 59.0 plays in this contest, the #32-most of the week.
  • This offense passes the ball 58.8% of the time in a neutral context (#24 in the NFL).

  • Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Landry is projected for 0.6% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #66 percentile among wide receivers.
  • Green Bay Packers cornerbacks rank as the #12 unit in pass coverage.
  • Green Bay Packers safeties rank as the #13 unit in pass coverage.
  • This offenses projects to pass 59.0% of the time in this contest (#20 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Cleveland Browns have run play-action on 24.6% of their passes this year, #20-most in the NFL.

    THE BLITZ sees him putting up 54.1 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 53.8% of the time.

    THE BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $0.73. It's return on investment would yeild 1%.

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