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Jarvis Landry

Jarvis Landry Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 14

Cleveland Browns vs Baltimore Ravens
Jarvis Landry Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 59.5 (-115/-120) with an implied projection of 59.1 yards.

The money has been on the Over as it opened 57.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 59.5 @ -115.
  • Landry has been on the field for 67.0% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #69 percentile among wide receivers.
  • His target share this season has been 22.4% -- #87 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
  • Landry has been in the #75 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 70.9% completion rate.
  • Cleveland has played in the #2-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year, which saps receiver efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.
  • Baltimore's defense has allowed 175 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#7-most in football).
  • Opposing wideouts have put up the #10-most yards per target (8.78) against the Ravens this season.
  • Baltimore Ravens cornerbacks rank as the #23 unit in pass coverage.
  • Baltimore Ravens safeties rank as the #28 unit in pass coverage.
  • Landry's offensive line has been #9 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.
  • Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Cleveland has faced the #7-most stacked boxes in the league this year (16.7%).

  • CONS:
  • In terms of efficiency, he has put up 7.41 yards per target this season, ranking in the #29 percentile.
  • The Ravens have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 58.5% of their targets this season, (#31-most in the league).
  • The Cleveland Browns have had the #28-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.
  • The Browns project to run 60.4 plays in this contest, the #25-most of the week.
  • Cleveland is a 3.0 point favorite, indicating a rushing game script.
  • This offense passes the ball 58.5% of the time in a neutral context (#24 in the NFL).
  • This offenses projects to pass 53.7% of the time in this contest (#23 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

  • He has run a route on 73.7% of Cleveland's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #66 percentile among wide receivers.
  • Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Landry is projected for 2.1% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #80 percentile among wide receivers.
  • Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Cleveland Browns have run play-action on 24.6% of their passes this year, #20-most in the NFL.

    THE BLITZ sees him putting up 53.4 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 45.1% of the time.

    The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the UNDER with an expected value of $0.74. It's return on investment would yeild 1%.

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