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Jarvis Landry Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 14
Cleveland Browns vs Baltimore Ravens
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Jarvis Landry Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 59.5 (-115/-120) with an implied projection of 59.1 yards.
The money has been on the Over as it opened 57.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 59.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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Landry has been on the field for 67.0% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #69 percentile among wide receivers.His target share this season has been 22.4% -- #87 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.Landry has been in the #75 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 70.9% completion rate.Cleveland has played in the #2-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year, which saps receiver efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.Baltimore's defense has allowed 175 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#7-most in football).Opposing wideouts have put up the #10-most yards per target (8.78) against the Ravens this season.Baltimore Ravens cornerbacks rank as the #23 unit in pass coverage.Baltimore Ravens safeties rank as the #28 unit in pass coverage.Landry's offensive line has been #9 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Cleveland has faced the #7-most stacked boxes in the league this year (16.7%).
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CONS:
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In terms of efficiency, he has put up 7.41 yards per target this season, ranking in the #29 percentile.The Ravens have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 58.5% of their targets this season, (#31-most in the league).The Cleveland Browns have had the #28-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Browns project to run 60.4 plays in this contest, the #25-most of the week.Cleveland is a 3.0 point favorite, indicating a rushing game script.This offense passes the ball 58.5% of the time in a neutral context (#24 in the NFL).This offenses projects to pass 53.7% of the time in this contest (#23 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
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NEUTRAL:
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He has run a route on 73.7% of Cleveland's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #66 percentile among wide receivers.Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Landry is projected for 2.1% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #80 percentile among wide receivers.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Cleveland Browns have run play-action on 24.6% of their passes this year, #20-most in the NFL.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 53.4 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 45.1% of the time.
The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the UNDER with an expected value of $0.74. It's return on investment would yeild 1%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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