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Jared Goff Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 18
Detroit Lions vs Green Bay Packers
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Right now, Jared Goff Passing Yards Prop is Over/Under 218.5 (-115/-115).
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PROS:
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Detroit's game this week will be played in a dome. That means two things: zero wind and a greater chance to complete passes.The Lions enter as a 4.0 point underdog. This indicates a passing game script.
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CONS:
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In terms of efficiency, Goff has been #32 in the NFL this season. He averages 6.38 yards per target.This year, the Lions have played in 9 games with wind of 2 mph or less. That ranks #5-most in football and means Goff's numbers may be artificially inflated.The Detroit Lions are projected to run 61.2 plays in this matchup, the #27-most on the game slate.In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 56.9% of the time (#29 in the NFL).Detroit has run play-action on 18.7% of their passes this year, #31-most in football. Play action passes lead to a higher completion rate as the defense bites on the run.Defenses leave more areas of the field open to the pass when they stack the box to stop the run. The Lions have faced the #23-most stacked boxes in the league this year (12.4%).Green Bay has allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 67.3% of their targets, which ranks them #7-best in the NFL.In terms of passing efficiency, Green Bay's defense is #4-best. This is because they allowed 7.06 yards per target to opposing signal-callers.The Green Bay Packers have had the #10-best group of safeties this season when it comes to pass coverage.The Green Bay Packers have had the #2-best group of linebackers this season when it comes to pass coverage.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Green Bay's defensive ends rank #7 this season.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Green Bay's defensive tackles rank #4 this season.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Green Bay's linebackers rank #5 this season.Defense that stack the box make it easier for quarterbacks to complete passes. In the case of the Packers, they've stacked the box on 5.5% of their plays this season, #31-most in football.
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NEUTRAL:
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This year, at #18-best in the league, Goff has passed for228 yards per game.In terms of Completion%, he has been the #19-best in the league, completing passes at a 65.7% clip.In a neutral context, Detroit has run the #19-fastest paced offense this season.THE BLITZ projects Detroit to drop back to pass on 60.5% of their plays in this game (#19-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.Detroit's O-Line grades out as the #17-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season.Detroit's offensive has kept pressure off Jared Goff for 2.43 seconds on average this year (#13-most in the NFL).Green Bay's #14-ranked pass defense has allowed 238 passing yards per game this year.The Green Bay Packers have had the #12-best group of cornerbacks this season when it comes to pass coverage.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Goff to exceed his player prop total 57.4% of the time. He projects for 238.3 Passing Yards (on average) in this matchup.
According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the OVER, with an expected value of $8.47. That makes its return on investment yield +7%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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