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Jared Goff Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 13
Detroit Lions vs Minnesota Vikings
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Jared Goff Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 222.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 232.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 222.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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This game will be played in a dome, meaning zero wind and a higher chance to complete passes.Detroit is a 7.0 point underdog, indicating an extreme passing game script.The Minnesota Vikings enter this game with the #23-best pass defense this season, allowing 264 yards per game through the air.Minnesota's defense has been #27-best in terms of passing efficiency, allowing 8.32 yards per target to opposing signal-callers.The Minnesota Vikings have had the #32-best group of cornerbacks this season in terms of their pass coverage.The Minnesota Vikings have stacked the box on 16.7% of their plays this season, #10-most in the NFL. A stacked box makes quarterbacks more efficient, while a light box makes it more difficult for them to complete passes.
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CONS:
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Efficiency-wise, Goff has been #35 in the NFL this season, averaging 6.30 yards per target.Detroit has played in 7 low-wind games (2 mph or less) this year (#3-most in football), which artificially improves a quarterback's efficiency and should lead to worse performance in normal conditions.This offense passes the ball 57.8% of the time in a neutral context (#27 in the NFL).Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Detroit Lions have run play-action on 18.7% of their passes this year, #31-most in the NFL.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Detroit have faced the #23-most stacked boxes in the league this year (#12.4%).The Vikings have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 67.3% of their targets, ranking #7 in the NFL.The Minnesota Vikings have had the #7-best group of safeties this season in terms of their pass coverage.The Minnesota Vikings have had the #2-best group of linebackers this season in terms of their pass coverage.Vikings defensive tackles have ranked #6 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
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NEUTRAL:
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Goff has passed for 226 yards per game this year, #22-best in the league.He's been the #17-best in terms of Completion%, completing passes at a 66.3% clip.The Detroit Lions have had the #19-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Lions project to run 62.5 plays in this contest, the #17-most of the week.This offenses projects to pass 61.4% of the time in this contest (#12 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.Jared Goff's offensive line has been #18 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.The Lions offensive line has given Jared Goff 2.43 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers.Vikings defensive ends have ranked #16 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.Vikings linebackers have ranked #21 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 254.5 Passing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 61.7% of the time.
The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $17.70. It's return on investment would yeild 15%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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