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Jamison Crowder Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 15

Miami Dolphins vs New York Jets

Jamison Crowder Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 40.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 43.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 40.5 @ -115.

PROS:

Crowder has been on the field for 71.3% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #74 percentile among wide receivers.

He has run a route on 81.3% of New York's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #76 percentile among wide receivers.

His target share this season has been 17.2% -- #72 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.

Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Crowder is projected for 3.8% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #85 percentile among wide receivers.

Crowder has been in the #78 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 72.0% completion rate.

Miami's defense has allowed 184 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#3-most in football).

The New York Jets have had the #4-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.

New York is a 10.0 point underdog, indicating an extreme passing game script.

This offenses projects to pass 63.3% of the time in this contest (#9 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

CONS:

In terms of efficiency, he has put up 7.25 yards per target this season, ranking in the #24 percentile.

Miami Dolphins safeties rank as the #5 unit in pass coverage.

The Jets project to run 61.9 plays in this contest, the #24-most of the week.

The Jets offensive line has given the QB 2.54 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#24-most time in the league).

Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The New York Jets have run play-action on 21.8% of their passes this year, #28-most in the NFL.

Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and New York has faced the #25-most stacked boxes in the league this year (10.6%).

NEUTRAL:

Opposing wideouts have put up the #14-most yards per target (8.49) against the Dolphins this season.

The Dolphins have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 65.7% of their targets this season, (#21-most in the league).

Miami Dolphins cornerbacks rank as the #20 unit in pass coverage.

This offense passes the ball 62.9% of the time in a neutral context (#12 in the NFL).

Crowder's offensive line has been #19 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.

PROJECTION:

THE BLITZ sees him putting up 54.0 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 61.6% of the time.

THE BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $17.46. It's return on investment would yeild 15%.

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