|
Ja'Marr Chase Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 16
Cincinnati Bengals vs Baltimore Ravens
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Ja'Marr Chase Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 62.5 (-105/-125) with an implied projection of 60.6 yards.
The money has been on the Under as it opened 63.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 62.5 @ -125.
|
|
|
|
PROS:
|
Chase has been on the field for 89.5% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #96 percentile among wide receivers.He has run a route on 96.3% of Cincinnati's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #99 percentile among wide receivers.His target share this season has been 23.8% -- #90 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.In terms of efficiency, he has put up 9.12 yards per target this season, ranking in the #76 percentile.Baltimore's defense has allowed 172 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#6-most in football).Opposing wideouts have put up the #10-most yards per target (8.71) against the Ravens this season.Baltimore Ravens cornerbacks rank as the #26 unit in pass coverage.Baltimore Ravens safeties rank as the #26 unit in pass coverage.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Cincinnati has faced the #8-most stacked boxes in the league this year (16.5%).
|
|
|
|
CONS:
|
Cincinnati has played in the #22-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year, which saps receiver efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.The Ravens have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 59.7% of their targets this season, (#29-most in the league).The Cincinnati Bengals have had the #28-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Bengals project to run 61.3 plays in this contest, the #25-most of the week.Cincinnati is a 7.5 point favorite, indicating an extreme rushing game script.This offenses projects to pass 57.1% of the time in this contest (#27 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Cincinnati Bengals have run play-action on 23.8% of their passes this year, #23-most in the NFL.
|
|
|
|
NEUTRAL:
|
Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Chase is projected for -1.0% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #46 percentile among wide receivers.Chase has been in the #40 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 61.7% completion rate.This offense passes the ball 60.2% of the time in a neutral context (#18 in the NFL).Chase's offensive line has been #22 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.The Bengals offensive line has given the QB 2.42 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#12-most time in the league).
|
|
|
|
PROJECTION:
|
THE BLITZ sees him putting up 64.3 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 51.3% of the time.
THE BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $0.23. It's return on investment would yeild 0%.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
ABOUT WRITENOW™
Create optimizable, relevant sports betting content at scale by automating your content generation process with WriteNow™. Designed and built by betting experts, WriteNow™ uses up-to-the-minute market data to develop stories that provide real-time betting insights and tell the story behind the numbers. WriteNow™ solves all your written content needs without the expense of an editorial team. The future of sports betting content is WriteNow™.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
|
|
|
|
|