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Ja'Marr Chase Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 12
Cincinnati Bengals vs Pittsburgh Steelers
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Ja'Marr Chase Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 66.5 (-115/-115).
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PROS:
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Chase has been on the field for 88.7% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #96 percentile among wide receivers.He has run a route on 95.9% of Cincinnati's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #98 percentile among wide receivers.His target share this season has been 25.6% -- #91 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.In terms of efficiency, he has put up 9.43 yards per target this season, ranking in the #71 percentile.Cincinnati has played in the #19-most low-wind games (2 mph or less) this year, which improves receiver efficiency and should lead to worse performance in normal conditions.Pittsburgh Steelers cornerbacks rank as the #23 unit in pass coverage.Pittsburgh Steelers safeties rank as the #32 unit in pass coverage.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Cincinnati has faced the #7-most stacked boxes in the league this year (17.3%).
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CONS:
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Chase has been in the #19 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 61.1% completion rate.The Cincinnati Bengals have had the #29-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Bengals project to run 61.7 plays in this contest, the #24-most of the week.Cincinnati is a 3.5 point favorite, indicating a rushing game script.This offenses projects to pass 57.4% of the time in this contest (#23 in the NFL) based on matchup dynamics.
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NEUTRAL:
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Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Chase is projected for -0.8% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #48 percentile among wide receivers.Pittsburgh's defense has allowed 162 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#13-most in football).Opposing wideouts have put up the #16-most yards per target (8.51) against the Steelers this season.The Steelers have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 67.1% of their targets this season, (#16-most in the league).This offense passes the ball 60.6% of the time in a neutral context (#19 in the NFL).Chase's offensive line has been #18 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.The Bengals offensive line has given the QB 2.44 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#16-most time in the league).Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Cincinnati Bengals have run play-action on 24.0% of their passes this year, #22-most in the NFL.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 64.2 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 48.3% of the time.
The BLITZ believes the UNDER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the UNDER is -$3.93 and with a negative ROI of -3%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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