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Freddie Swain

Freddie Swain Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 16

Seattle Seahawks vs Chicago Bears
Freddie Swain Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 19.5 (-120/-110) with an implied projection of 20.1 yards.

The money has been on the Over as it opened 19.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 19.5 @ -120.
  • Opposing wideouts have put up the #5-most yards per target (9.01) against the Bears this season.
  • Chicago Bears cornerbacks rank as the #29 unit in pass coverage.
  • Chicago Bears safeties rank as the #24 unit in pass coverage.
  • The Seattle Seahawks have had the #3-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.
  • The Seahawks project to run 63.7 plays in this contest, the #9-most of the week.
  • This offense passes the ball 62.7% of the time in a neutral context (#11 in the NFL).

  • CONS:
  • In terms of efficiency, he has put up 6.56 yards per target this season, ranking in the #18 percentile.
  • Seattle is a 7.0 point favorite, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
  • This offenses projects to pass 52.1% of the time in this contest (#31 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • Swain's offensive line has been #26 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.
  • Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Seattle has faced the #28-most stacked boxes in the league this year (9.2%).

  • Swain has been on the field for 63.2% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #64 percentile among wide receivers.
  • He has run a route on 68.0% of Seattle's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #60 percentile among wide receivers.
  • His target share this season has been 9.0% -- #48 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
  • Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Swain is projected for 1.5% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #70 percentile among wide receivers.
  • Swain has been in the #45 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 63.7% completion rate.
  • Chicago's defense has allowed 160 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#13-most in football).
  • The Bears have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 67.1% of their targets this season, (#13-most in the league).
  • The Seahawks offensive line has given the QB 2.51 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#22-most time in the league).
  • Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Seattle Seahawks have run play-action on 25.1% of their passes this year, #19-most in the NFL.

    THE BLITZ sees him putting up 18.6 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 48.9% of the time.

    THE BLITZ believes the UNDER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the UNDER is -$2.69 and with a negative ROI of -2%.

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