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Elijah Moore Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 13
New York Jets vs Philadelphia Eagles
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Elijah Moore Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 52.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 53.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 52.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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His target share this season has been 17.0% -- #71 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Moore is projected for 5.0% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #95 percentile among wide receivers.The Eagles have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 68.3% of their targets this season, (#10-most in the league).Philadelphia Eagles safeties rank as the #28 unit in pass coverage.New York is a 5.0 point underdog, indicating a passing game script.This offenses projects to pass 61.7% of the time in this contest (#10 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
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CONS:
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In terms of efficiency, he has put up 7.42 yards per target this season, ranking in the #28 percentile.Moore has been in the #29 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 59.8% completion rate.Philadelphia's defense has allowed 133 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#30-most in football).Opposing wideouts have put up the #23-most yards per target (7.86) against the Eagles this season.Philadelphia Eagles cornerbacks rank as the #1 unit in pass coverage.The Jets offensive line has given the QB 2.54 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#24-most time in the league).Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The New York Jets have run play-action on 21.8% of their passes this year, #28-most in the NFL.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and New York has faced the #25-most stacked boxes in the league this year (10.6%).
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NEUTRAL:
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Moore has been on the field for 62.6% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #64 percentile among wide receivers.He has run a route on 63.8% of New York's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #56 percentile among wide receivers.The New York Jets have had the #12-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Jets project to run 63.4 plays in this contest, the #12-most of the week.This offense passes the ball 62.0% of the time in a neutral context (#13 in the NFL).Moore's offensive line has been #22 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 57.2 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 53.8% of the time.
The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $0.71. It's return on investment would yeild 1%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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