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Donovan Peoples-Jones Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 14
Cleveland Browns vs Baltimore Ravens
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Donovan Peoples-Jones Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 36.5 (-115/-115).
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PROS:
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Peoples-Jones has been on the field for 72.2% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #77 percentile among wide receivers.He has run a route on 77.3% of Cleveland's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #72 percentile among wide receivers.Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Peoples-Jones is projected for 4.0% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #91 percentile among wide receivers.In terms of efficiency, he has put up 10.57 yards per target this season, ranking in the #96 percentile.Cleveland has played in the #2-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year, which saps receiver efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.Baltimore's defense has allowed 175 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#7-most in football).Opposing wideouts have put up the #10-most yards per target (8.78) against the Ravens this season.Baltimore Ravens cornerbacks rank as the #23 unit in pass coverage.Baltimore Ravens safeties rank as the #28 unit in pass coverage.Peoples-Jones's offensive line has been #9 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Cleveland has faced the #7-most stacked boxes in the league this year (16.7%).
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CONS:
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The Ravens have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 58.5% of their targets this season, (#31-most in the league).The Cleveland Browns have had the #28-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Browns project to run 60.4 plays in this contest, the #25-most of the week.Cleveland is a 3.0 point favorite, indicating a rushing game script.This offense passes the ball 58.5% of the time in a neutral context (#24 in the NFL).This offenses projects to pass 53.7% of the time in this contest (#23 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
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NEUTRAL:
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His target share this season has been 11.5% -- #56 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.Peoples-Jones has been in the #55 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 65.3% completion rate.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Cleveland Browns have run play-action on 24.6% of their passes this year, #20-most in the NFL.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 35.2 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 48.7% of the time.
The BLITZ believes the UNDER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the UNDER is -$4.68 and with a negative ROI of -4%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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