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Diontae Johnson Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 15
Pittsburgh Steelers vs Tennessee Titans
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Diontae Johnson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 81.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 78.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 81.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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Johnson has been on the field for 90.8% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #97 percentile among wide receivers.He has run a route on 95.5% of Pittsburgh's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #98 percentile among wide receivers.His target share this season has been 30.0% -- #99 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.Pittsburgh has played in the #5-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year, which saps receiver efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.Tennessee's defense has allowed 196 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#2-most in football).Opposing wideouts have put up the #6-most yards per target (9.02) against the Titans this season.The Titans have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 68.8% of their targets this season, (#7-most in the league).The Pittsburgh Steelers have had the #8-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.Johnson's offensive line has been #9 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.The Steelers offensive line has given the QB 2.39 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#5-most time in the league).Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Pittsburgh has faced the #10-most stacked boxes in the league this year (16.1%).
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CONS:
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Tennessee Titans safeties rank as the #3 unit in pass coverage.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Pittsburgh Steelers have run play-action on 19.6% of their passes this year, #30-most in the NFL.
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NEUTRAL:
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Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Johnson is projected for 0.9% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #65 percentile among wide receivers.In terms of efficiency, he has put up 7.84 yards per target this season, ranking in the #40 percentile.Johnson has been in the #49 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 64.6% completion rate.Tennessee Titans cornerbacks rank as the #15 unit in pass coverage.The Steelers project to run 62.5 plays in this contest, the #19-most of the week.This offense passes the ball 61.9% of the time in a neutral context (#13 in the NFL).This offenses projects to pass 61.5% of the time in this contest (#11 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 74.9 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 45.7% of the time.
THE BLITZ believes there is positive value on the UNDER with an expected value of $1.83. It's return on investment would yeild 2%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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