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Diontae Johnson Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 13
Pittsburgh Steelers vs Baltimore Ravens
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Diontae Johnson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 74.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 73.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 74.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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Johnson has been on the field for 89.7% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #97 percentile among wide receivers.He has run a route on 94.7% of Pittsburgh's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #96 percentile among wide receivers.His target share this season has been 30.0% -- #99 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.Pittsburgh has played in the #3-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year, which saps receiver efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.Baltimore's defense has allowed 176 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#8-most in football).Baltimore Ravens safeties rank as the #29 unit in pass coverage.The Pittsburgh Steelers have had the #11-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.Pittsburgh is a 4.0 point underdog, indicating a passing game script.This offenses projects to pass 63.5% of the time in this contest (#6 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.Johnson's offensive line has been #9 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.The Steelers offensive line has given the QB 2.39 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#5-most time in the league).Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Pittsburgh has faced the #10-most stacked boxes in the league this year (16.1%).
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CONS:
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The Ravens have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 58.6% of their targets this season, (#31-most in the league).The Steelers project to run 60.2 plays in this contest, the #28-most of the week.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Pittsburgh Steelers have run play-action on 19.6% of their passes this year, #30-most in the NFL.
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NEUTRAL:
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Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Johnson is projected for -1.0% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #45 percentile among wide receivers.In terms of efficiency, he has put up 7.63 yards per target this season, ranking in the #33 percentile.Johnson has been in the #48 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 64.3% completion rate.Opposing wideouts have put up the #11-most yards per target (8.74) against the Ravens this season.Baltimore Ravens cornerbacks rank as the #16 unit in pass coverage.This offense passes the ball 62.3% of the time in a neutral context (#12 in the NFL).
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 70.3 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 47.1% of the time.
The BLITZ believes the UNDER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the UNDER is -$1.33 and with a negative ROI of -1%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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