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Diontae Johnson Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 12
Cincinnati Bengals vs Pittsburgh Steelers
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Diontae Johnson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 70.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 74.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 70.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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Johnson has been on the field for 88.8% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #97 percentile among wide receivers.He has run a route on 94.3% of Pittsburgh's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #96 percentile among wide receivers.His target share this season has been 29.3% -- #98 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.Pittsburgh has played in the #3-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year, which saps receiver efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.The Bengals have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 70.5% of their targets this season, (#5-most in the league).Pittsburgh is a 3.5 point underdog, indicating a passing game script.This offenses projects to pass 62.0% of the time in this contest (#9 in the NFL) based on matchup dynamics.Johnson's offensive line has been #6 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.The Steelers offensive line has given the QB 2.38 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#4-most time in the league).
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CONS:
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In terms of efficiency, he has put up 7.68 yards per target this season, ranking in the #21 percentile.The Steelers project to run 61.5 plays in this contest, the #26-most of the week.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Pittsburgh Steelers have run play-action on 19.4% of their passes this year, #31-most in the NFL.
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NEUTRAL:
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Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Johnson is projected for -1.8% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #35 percentile among wide receivers.Johnson has been in the #36 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 64.3% completion rate.Cincinnati's defense has allowed 160 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#15-most in football).Opposing wideouts have put up the #15-most yards per target (8.52) against the Bengals this season.Cincinnati Bengals cornerbacks rank as the #15 unit in pass coverage.Cincinnati Bengals safeties rank as the #14 unit in pass coverage.The Pittsburgh Steelers have had the #15-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.This offense passes the ball 62.1% of the time in a neutral context (#13 in the NFL).Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Pittsburgh has faced the #13-most stacked boxes in the league this year (15.4%).
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 66.6 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 47.2% of the time.
The BLITZ believes the UNDER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the UNDER is -$1.50 and with a negative ROI of -1%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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