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Devonta Freeman Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 12
Baltimore Ravens vs Cleveland Browns
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Devonta Freeman Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 45.5 (-110/-120) with an implied projection of 44.7 yards.
The money has been on the Under as it opened 45.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 45.5 @ -120.
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PROS:
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Freeman has been the #48-leading rusher this season, tallying 30 yards per game on the ground.Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Freeman is projected for 10.3% more of his team's carry share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #87 percentile among running backs.Baltimore is a 3.5 point favorite, indicating a rushing game script.This offenses projects to runs 52.3% of the time in this contest (#1 in the NFL) based on matchup dynamics.Browns defensive tackles have ranked #25 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
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CONS:
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The Baltimore Ravens have had the #27-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Ravens project to run 59.9 total plays in this contest, the #29-most of the week.The Cleveland Browns have ranked #7 against the run this year, holding opponents to 100 yards per game on the ground.In terms of efficiency, Cleveland's defense has allowed 4.16 yards per carry to opposing rushers (#7-least in football).Browns defensive ends have ranked #4 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Browns linebackers have ranked #9 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
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NEUTRAL:
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The Baltimore Ravens offensive line has ranked #18 in the NFL when it comes to run blocking this season.He has been on the field for 36.0% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #58 percentile among running backs.He has received 21.8% of Baltimore's carries this year -- #58 percentile when it comes to running backs.Baltimore has played in the #10-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year. Teams tend to run the ball more in windy conditions, artificially inflating their play-calling Run%, which should balance back out under normal conditions.This offense runs the ball 39.2% of the time in a neutral context (#16 in the NFL), and they project to run 39.2% of the time in this contest.Browns safeties have ranked #20 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Stacking the box with extra defenders is a common strategy defenses uses to stop the run, and the Baltimore Ravens have faced a stacked box 15.3% of the time this season -- #14-most in football.The Cleveland Browns have stacked the box with 8 or more defenders 15.0% of the time this season, ranking as the #15 most in the league.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 44.7 Rushing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 49.2% of the time.
The BLITZ believes the OVER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the OVER is -$6.68 and with a negative ROI of -6%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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