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Devin Singletary Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 20 - AFC Divisional Round Game
Kansas City Chiefs vs Buffalo Bills
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Right now, Devin Singletary Rushing Yards Prop is Over/Under 60.5 (-110/-110).
The money is on the Over: it opened 55.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 60.5 @ -110.
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PROS:
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His 57.9% snap rate this year puts him in the #86 percentile among running backs.His carry rate of 45.0% this year puts him in the #70 percentile among running backs.This week, THE BLITZ projects Singletary for a 11.8% higher carry share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.The Buffalo Bills are projected to run 62.9 plays in this matchup, the #4-most on the game slate.THE BLITZ projects this offense as the #3-most run-heavy of the week (based on team tendencies and matchup factors), expecting them to run on 38.3% of their plays.The Kansas City Chiefs have allowed 4.80 yards per attempt on the ground this year, putting them #27-best in the metric this season.The defensive tackles of Kansas City have been the #30-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.The safeties of Kansas City have been the #32-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.
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CONS:
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Singletary finds himself in the #67 percentile in rushing yards per game in 2021, averaging 51 yards.This year, the Bills have played in the #1-most games with 15 mph+ winds. Because teams tend to run more when it's windy, Buffalo's play-calling Run% may appear higher than it ought to be.Teams run the ball less when winds are light, and forecasts call for 2-mph wind in this game.Buffalo has been the #30-most run-heavy offense in the NFL this year with a 32.4% run rate in a neutral context.
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NEUTRAL:
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The offensive line is crucial to open up holes, and Buffalo's ranks #20 in that regard this season.In a neutral context, Buffalo has run the #18-fastest paced offense this season.The Chiefs defense has allowed 115 rushing yards per game to opponents this year, #21-least in football.The defensive ends of Kansas City have been the #21-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.The linebackers of Kansas City have been the #17-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Singletary to exceed his player prop total 55.4% of the time. He projects for 67.7 Rushing Yards (on average) in this matchup.
According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the OVER, with an expected value of $6.38. That makes its return on investment yield +6%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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