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Deebo Samuel Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 15
San Francisco 49ers vs Atlanta Falcons
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Deebo Samuel Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 41.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 45.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 41.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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Samuel has been on the field for 81.7% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #84 percentile among wide receivers.He has run a route on 89.7% of San Francisco's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #87 percentile among wide receivers.His target share this season has been 25.6% -- #93 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.In terms of efficiency, he has put up 9.92 yards per target this season, ranking in the #87 percentile.San Francisco has played in the #5-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year, which saps receiver efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.Atlanta's defense has allowed 170 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#10-most in football).The Falcons have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 70.8% of their targets this season, (#3-most in the league).Atlanta Falcons safeties rank as the #29 unit in pass coverage.Samuel's offensive line has been #6 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The San Francisco 49ers have run play-action on 28.8% of their passes this year, #9-most in the NFL.
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CONS:
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Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Samuel is projected for -5.8% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #18 percentile among wide receivers.Atlanta Falcons cornerbacks rank as the #6 unit in pass coverage.The San Francisco 49ers have had the #26-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.San Francisco is a 9.0 point favorite, indicating an extreme rushing game script.This offense passes the ball 58.7% of the time in a neutral context (#25 in the NFL).This offenses projects to pass 55.2% of the time in this contest (#25 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.The 49ers offensive line has given the QB 2.52 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#23-most time in the league).Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and San Francisco has faced the #26-most stacked boxes in the league this year (10.5%).
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NEUTRAL:
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Samuel has been in the #49 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 64.8% completion rate.Opposing wideouts have put up the #17-most yards per target (8.28) against the Falcons this season.The 49ers project to run 63.9 plays in this contest, the #11-most of the week.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 59.0 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 64.4% of the time.
THE BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $23.50. It's return on investment would yeild 20%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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