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DeAndre Hopkins Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 13
Chicago Bears vs Arizona Cardinals
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DeAndre Hopkins Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 54.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 60.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 54.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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Hopkins has been on the field for 93.6% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #100 percentile among wide receivers.He has run a route on 97.7% of Arizona's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #100 percentile among wide receivers.His target share this season has been 20.9% -- #83 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.In terms of efficiency, he has put up 10.84 yards per target this season, ranking in the #95 percentile.Hopkins has been in the #82 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 74.9% completion rate.Chicago's defense has allowed 175 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#9-most in football).Opposing wideouts have put up the #5-most yards per target (9.37) against the Bears this season.Chicago Bears cornerbacks rank as the #29 unit in pass coverage.Chicago Bears safeties rank as the #23 unit in pass coverage.The Cardinals project to run 65.0 plays in this contest, the #2-most of the week.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Arizona Cardinals have run play-action on 37.3% of their passes this year, #1-most in the NFL.
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CONS:
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Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Hopkins is projected for -3.4% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #28 percentile among wide receivers.Arizona is a 7.5 point favorite, indicating an extreme rushing game script.This offenses projects to pass 50.5% of the time in this contest (#26 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Arizona has faced the #30-most stacked boxes in the league this year (7.5%).
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NEUTRAL:
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The Bears have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 67.2% of their targets this season, (#14-most in the league).The Arizona Cardinals have had the #22-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.This offense passes the ball 61.3% of the time in a neutral context (#17 in the NFL).Hopkins's offensive line has been #15 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 38.6 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 36.3% of the time.
The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the UNDER with an expected value of $21.87. It's return on investment would yeild 19%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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