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Dalvin Cook Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 15
Chicago Bears vs Minnesota Vikings
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Dalvin Cook Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 95.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 91.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 95.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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He has been on the field for 57.1% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #84 percentile among running backs.He has received 74.6% of Minnesota's carries this year -- #4 percentile when it comes to running backs.Minnesota has played in 9 low-wind games (2 mph or less) this year (#2-most in football). Teams tend to pass the ball more in low-wind conditions, artificially deflating their play-calling Run%, which should balance back out under normal conditions.The Minnesota Vikings have had the #11-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.Minnesota is a 7.0 point favorite, indicating an extreme rushing game script.This offenses projects to runs 46.0% of the time in this contest (#4 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.The Chicago Bears have ranked #27 against the run this year, holding opponents to 128 yards per game on the ground.In terms of efficiency, Chicago's defense has allowed 4.78 yards per carry to opposing rushers (#28-least in football).Bears defensive tackles have ranked #26 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Bears linebackers have ranked #29 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
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CONS:
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Cook has been the #3-leading rusher this season, tallying 98 yards per game on the ground.The Minnesota Vikings offensive line has ranked #30 in the NFL when it comes to run blocking this season.Stacking the box with extra defenders is a common strategy defenses uses to stop the run, and the Minnesota Vikings have faced a stacked box 20.8% of the time this season -- #3-most in football.
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NEUTRAL:
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Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Cook is projected for 3.0% more of his team's carry share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks among the biggest increases among running backs this week.The Vikings project to run 63.3 total plays in this contest, the #15-most of the week.This offense runs the ball 39.9% of the time in a neutral context (#13 in the NFL), and they project to run 39.9% of the time in this contest.Bears defensive ends have ranked #18 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Bears safeties have ranked #21 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.The Chicago Bears have stacked the box with 8 or more defenders 14.7% of the time this season, ranking as the #16 most in the league.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 110.3 Rushing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 57.8% of the time.
THE BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $9.23. It's return on investment would yeild 8%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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