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Dalvin Cook Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 14
Minnesota Vikings vs Pittsburgh Steelers
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Dalvin Cook Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 64.5 (-120/-110) with an implied projection of 65.5 yards.
The money has been on the Over as it opened 64.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 64.5 @ -120.
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PROS:
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He has been on the field for 55.3% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #82 percentile among running backs.He has received 74.7% of Minnesota's carries this year -- #4 percentile when it comes to running backs.Minnesota has played in 8 low-wind games (2 mph or less) this year (#3-most in football). Teams tend to pass the ball more in low-wind conditions, artificially deflating their play-calling Run%, which should balance back out under normal conditions.The Minnesota Vikings have had the #10-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.Minnesota is a 3.5 point favorite, indicating a rushing game script.The Pittsburgh Steelers have ranked #26 against the run this year, holding opponents to 128 yards per game on the ground.In terms of efficiency, Pittsburgh's defense has allowed 4.78 yards per carry to opposing rushers (#29-least in football).Steelers defensive tackles have ranked #23 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
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CONS:
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Cook has been the #4-leading rusher this season, tallying 86 yards per game on the ground.The Minnesota Vikings offensive line has ranked #30 in the NFL when it comes to run blocking this season.Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Cook is projected for -10.1% more of his team's carry share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks among the biggest increases among running backs this week.This game will be played in a dome, meaning zero wind and a higher likelihood of the Vikings passing the ball more than usual.Steelers defensive ends have ranked #1 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Stacking the box with extra defenders is a common strategy defenses uses to stop the run, and the Minnesota Vikings have faced a stacked box 20.8% of the time this season -- #3-most in football.The Pittsburgh Steelers have stacked the box with 8 or more defenders 19.3% of the time this season, ranking as the #5 most in the league.
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NEUTRAL:
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The Vikings project to run 63.3 total plays in this contest, the #12-most of the week.This offense runs the ball 39.9% of the time in a neutral context (#13 in the NFL), and they project to run 39.9% of the time in this contest.This offenses projects to runs 40.3% of the time in this contest (#13 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.Steelers linebackers have ranked #12 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Steelers safeties have ranked #16 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 69.6 Rushing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 53.7% of the time.
The BLITZ believes the OVER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the OVER is -$1.82 and with a negative ROI of -2%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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