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Dak Prescott Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 16
Dallas Cowboys vs Washington Football Team
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Dak Prescott Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 279.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 278.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 279.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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Prescott has passed for 290 yards per game this year, #3-best in the league.He's been the #6-best in terms of Completion%, completing passes at a 68.9% clip.Efficiency-wise, Prescott has been #7 in the NFL this season, averaging 7.66 yards per target.This game will be played in a dome, meaning zero wind and a higher chance to complete passes.The Dallas Cowboys have had the #2-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Cowboys project to run 66.6 plays in this contest, the #1-most of the week.This offense passes the ball 63.3% of the time in a neutral context (#9 in the NFL).Dak Prescott's offensive line has been #1 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.The Washington Football Team enter this game with the #28-best pass defense this season, allowing 270 yards per game through the air.The Washington Football Team defense ranks #25-best in football in Yards per Target at 7.99.Washington's linebackers grade out as the #32-best in pass coverage this year.WFT defensive ends have ranked #27 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
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CONS:
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Dallas has played in 9 low-wind games (2 mph or less) this year (#2-most in football), which artificially improves a quarterback's efficiency and should lead to worse performance in normal conditions.Dallas is a 10.0 point favorite, indicating an extreme rushing game script.WFT defensive tackles have ranked #2 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
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NEUTRAL:
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This offenses projects to pass 60.8% of the time in this contest (#15 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.The Cowboys offensive line has given Dak Prescott 2.45 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#17-best in football).Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Dallas Cowboys have run play-action on 25.5% of their passes this year, #16-most in the NFL.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Dallas have faced the #16-most stacked boxes in the league this year (14.0%).The WFT have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 71.3% of their targets, ranking #20-best in the NFL.Washington's cornerbacks grade out as the #13-best in pass coverage this year.Washington's safeties grade out as the #17-best in pass coverage this year.WFT linebackers have ranked #22 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.The Washington Football Team have stacked the box on 13.2% of their plays this season, #20-most in the NFL. A stacked box makes quarterbacks more efficient, while a light box makes it more difficult for them to complete passes.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees Prescott putting up 315.9 Passing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 62.4% of the time.
THE BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $19.07. Its return on investment would yield +17%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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