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Dak Prescott Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 15
New York Giants vs Dallas Cowboys
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Dak Prescott Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 275.5 (-115/-115).
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PROS:
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Prescott has passed for 293 yards per game this year, #3-best in the league.He's been the #7-best in terms of Completion%, completing passes at a 68.1% clip.Efficiency-wise, Prescott has been #9 in the NFL this season, averaging 7.72 yards per target.The Dallas Cowboys have had the #2-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Cowboys project to run 68.4 plays in this contest, the #1-most of the week.This offense passes the ball 63.1% of the time in a neutral context (#11 in the NFL).Dak Prescott's offensive line has been #1 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.The New York Giants have had the #26-best group of linebackers this season in terms of their pass coverage.Giants linebackers have ranked #30 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
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CONS:
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Dallas has played in 9 low-wind games (2 mph or less) this year (#2-most in football), which artificially improves a quarterback's efficiency and should lead to worse performance in normal conditions.Dallas is a 12.0 point favorite, indicating an extreme rushing game script.This offenses projects to pass 55.3% of the time in this contest (#24 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.New York's defense has been #8-best in terms of passing efficiency, allowing 7.39 yards per target to opposing signal-callers.The New York Giants have had the #10-best group of cornerbacks this season in terms of their pass coverage.Giants defensive ends have ranked #10 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.The New York Giants have stacked the box on 8.3% of their plays this season, #29-most in the NFL. A stacked box makes quarterbacks more efficient, while a light box makes it more difficult for them to complete passes.
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NEUTRAL:
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The Cowboys offensive line has given Dak Prescott 2.45 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Dallas Cowboys have run play-action on 25.5% of their passes this year, #16-most in the NFL.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Dallas have faced the #16-most stacked boxes in the league this year (14.0%).The New York Giants enter this game with the #20-best pass defense this season, allowing 260 yards per game through the air.The Giants have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 71.9% of their targets, ranking #20 in the NFL.The New York Giants have had the #20-best group of safeties this season in terms of their pass coverage.Giants defensive tackles have ranked #17 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 262.1 Passing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 45.2% of the time.
THE BLITZ believes there is positive value on the UNDER with an expected value of $2.82. It's return on investment would yeild 2%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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