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Curtis Samuel

Curtis Samuel Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 14

Washington Football Team vs Dallas Cowboys

Curtis Samuel Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 19.5 (-120/-110) with an implied projection of 20.1 yards.

The money has been on the Over as it opened 15.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 19.5 @ -120.

PROS:

Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Samuel is projected for 8.3% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #100 percentile among wide receivers.

Washington has played in the #4-most bad-weather games (rain, snow, or 15 mph+) this year, which saps receiver efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.

Dallas's defense has allowed 184 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#3-most in football).

The WFT project to run 65.1 plays in this contest, the #4-most of the week.

Washington is a 6.0 point underdog, indicating a passing game script.

Samuel's offensive line has been #4 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.

Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Washington Football Team have run play-action on 34.1% of their passes this year, #3-most in the NFL.

CONS:

The Cowboys have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 59.0% of their targets this season, (#30-most in the league).

The Washington Football Team have had the #23-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.

The WFT offensive line has given the QB 2.58 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#31-most time in the league).

Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Washington has faced the #32-most stacked boxes in the league this year (5.3%).

NEUTRAL:

Opposing wideouts have put up the #14-most yards per target (8.51) against the Cowboys this season.

Dallas Cowboys cornerbacks rank as the #16 unit in pass coverage.

Dallas Cowboys safeties rank as the #12 unit in pass coverage.

This offense passes the ball 59.4% of the time in a neutral context (#22 in the NFL).

This offenses projects to pass 59.4% of the time in this contest (#17 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

PROJECTION:

THE BLITZ sees him putting up 32.4 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 64.2% of the time.

The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $21.22. It's return on investment would yeild 18%.

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