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Curtis Samuel

Curtis Samuel Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 14

Washington Football Team vs Dallas Cowboys
Curtis Samuel Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 19.5 (-120/-110) with an implied projection of 20.1 yards.

The money has been on the Over as it opened 15.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 19.5 @ -120.
  • Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Samuel is projected for 8.3% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #100 percentile among wide receivers.
  • Washington has played in the #4-most bad-weather games (rain, snow, or 15 mph+) this year, which saps receiver efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.
  • Dallas's defense has allowed 184 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#3-most in football).
  • The WFT project to run 65.1 plays in this contest, the #4-most of the week.
  • Washington is a 6.0 point underdog, indicating a passing game script.
  • Samuel's offensive line has been #4 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.
  • Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Washington Football Team have run play-action on 34.1% of their passes this year, #3-most in the NFL.

  • CONS:
  • The Cowboys have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 59.0% of their targets this season, (#30-most in the league).
  • The Washington Football Team have had the #23-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.
  • The WFT offensive line has given the QB 2.58 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#31-most time in the league).
  • Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Washington has faced the #32-most stacked boxes in the league this year (5.3%).

  • Opposing wideouts have put up the #14-most yards per target (8.51) against the Cowboys this season.
  • Dallas Cowboys cornerbacks rank as the #16 unit in pass coverage.
  • Dallas Cowboys safeties rank as the #12 unit in pass coverage.
  • This offense passes the ball 59.4% of the time in a neutral context (#22 in the NFL).
  • This offenses projects to pass 59.4% of the time in this contest (#17 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

    THE BLITZ sees him putting up 32.4 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 64.2% of the time.

    The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $21.22. It's return on investment would yeild 18%.

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