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Courtland Sutton

Courtland Sutton Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 14

Denver Broncos vs Detroit Lions
Courtland Sutton Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 35.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 40.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 35.5 @ -115.
  • Sutton has been on the field for 85.2% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #91 percentile among wide receivers.
  • He has run a route on 90.1% of Denver's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #87 percentile among wide receivers.
  • His target share this season has been 19.8% -- #80 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
  • In terms of efficiency, he has put up 8.94 yards per target this season, ranking in the #67 percentile.
  • Denver has played in the #2-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year, which saps receiver efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.
  • Opposing wideouts have put up the #6-most yards per target (9.21) against the Lions this season.
  • Detroit Lions cornerbacks rank as the #27 unit in pass coverage.
  • Detroit Lions safeties rank as the #30 unit in pass coverage.
  • The Broncos offensive line has given the QB 2.55 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#8-most time in the league).

  • CONS:
  • The Denver Broncos have had the #30-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.
  • Denver is a 12.5 point favorite, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
  • This offenses projects to pass 53.3% of the time in this contest (#25 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

  • Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Sutton is projected for -2.5% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #33 percentile among wide receivers.
  • Sutton has been in the #45 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 63.5% completion rate.
  • Detroit's defense has allowed 159 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#15-most in football).
  • The Lions have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 65.0% of their targets this season, (#22-most in the league).
  • The Broncos project to run 61.2 plays in this contest, the #20-most of the week.
  • This offense passes the ball 61.1% of the time in a neutral context (#15 in the NFL).
  • Sutton's offensive line has been #16 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.
  • Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Denver Broncos have run play-action on 25.3% of their passes this year, #22-most in the NFL.
  • Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Denver has faced the #12-most stacked boxes in the league this year (15.4%).

    THE BLITZ sees him putting up 50.2 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 63.2% of the time.

    The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $20.84. It's return on investment would yeild 18%.

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