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Courtland Sutton Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 12
Denver Broncos vs Los Angeles Chargers
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Courtland Sutton Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 42.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 44.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 42.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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Sutton has been on the field for 86.0% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #91 percentile among wide receivers.He has run a route on 90.5% of Denver's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #88 percentile among wide receivers.His target share this season has been 20.3% -- #81 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.In terms of efficiency, he has put up 9.67 yards per target this season, ranking in the #76 percentile.Denver has played in the #3-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year, which saps receiver efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.The Chargers have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 68.5% of their targets this season, (#8-most in the league).
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CONS:
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Los Angeles's defense has allowed 140 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#26-most in football).Opposing wideouts have put up the #23-most yards per target (7.82) against the Chargers this season.Los Angeles Chargers safeties rank as the #5 unit in pass coverage.The Denver Broncos have had the #31-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Denver Broncos have run play-action on 23.3% of their passes this year, #25-most in the NFL.
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NEUTRAL:
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Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Sutton is projected for -0.8% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #47 percentile among wide receivers.Sutton has been in the #40 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 65.9% completion rate.Los Angeles Chargers cornerbacks rank as the #21 unit in pass coverage.The Broncos project to run 62.1 plays in this contest, the #21-most of the week.This offense passes the ball 62.3% of the time in a neutral context (#12 in the NFL).This offenses projects to pass 60.1% of the time in this contest (#14 in the NFL) based on matchup dynamics.Sutton's offensive line has been #17 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Denver has faced the #15-most stacked boxes in the league this year (15.0%).
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 61.3 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 65.2% of the time.
The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $25.09. It's return on investment would yeild 22%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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