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Cordarrelle Patterson

Cordarrelle Patterson Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 15

San Francisco 49ers vs Atlanta Falcons
Cordarrelle Patterson Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 48.5 (-120/-110) with an implied projection of 49.3 yards.

The money has been on the Over as it opened 48.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 48.5 @ -120.
  • The Atlanta Falcons offensive line has ranked #9 in the NFL when it comes to run blocking this season.
  • He has been on the field for 44.1% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #70 percentile among running backs.
  • He has received 43.6% of Atlanta's carries this year -- #32 percentile when it comes to running backs.
  • Atlanta has played in 6 low-wind games (2 mph or less) this year (#6-most in football). Teams tend to pass the ball more in low-wind conditions, artificially deflating their play-calling Run%, which should balance back out under normal conditions.
  • The San Francisco 49ers have stacked the box with 8 or more defenders 9.7% of the time this season, ranking as the #26 most in the league.

  • CONS:
  • Atlanta is a 9.0 point underdog, indicating an extreme passing game script.
  • This offenses projects to runs 34.1% of the time in this contest (#30 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • 49ers defensive tackles have ranked #9 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
  • 49ers linebackers have ranked #6 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
  • 49ers safeties have ranked #3 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.

  • Patterson has been the #32-leading rusher this season, tallying 44 yards per game on the ground.
  • Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Patterson is projected for 8.2% more of his team's carry share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks among the biggest increases among running backs this week.
  • The Atlanta Falcons have had the #16-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.
  • The Falcons project to run 63.4 total plays in this contest, the #13-most of the week.
  • This offense runs the ball 38.8% of the time in a neutral context (#18 in the NFL), and they project to run 38.8% of the time in this contest.
  • The San Francisco 49ers have ranked #16 against the run this year, holding opponents to 111 yards per game on the ground.
  • In terms of efficiency, San Francisco's defense has allowed 4.41 yards per carry to opposing rushers (#15-least in football).
  • 49ers defensive ends have ranked #14 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
  • Stacking the box with extra defenders is a common strategy defenses uses to stop the run, and the Atlanta Falcons have faced a stacked box 12.5% of the time this season -- #22-most in football.

    THE BLITZ sees him putting up 46.8 Rushing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 48.4% of the time.

    THE BLITZ believes the UNDER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the UNDER is -$1.68 and with a negative ROI of -2%.

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