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Cordarrelle Patterson Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 14
Carolina Panthers vs Atlanta Falcons
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Cordarrelle Patterson Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 57.5 (100/-135) with an implied projection of 54.5 yards.
The money has been on the Over as it opened 53.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 57.5 @ 100.
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PROS:
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The Atlanta Falcons offensive line has ranked #9 in the NFL when it comes to run blocking this season.He has been on the field for 43.6% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #69 percentile among running backs.He has received 42.9% of Atlanta's carries this year -- #32 percentile when it comes to running backs.Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Patterson is projected for 12.9% more of his team's carry share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks among the biggest increases among running backs this week.Atlanta has played in 6 low-wind games (2 mph or less) this year (#5-most in football). Teams tend to pass the ball more in low-wind conditions, artificially deflating their play-calling Run%, which should balance back out under normal conditions.The Falcons project to run 63.9 total plays in this contest, the #10-most of the week.Panthers defensive ends have ranked #30 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Panthers safeties have ranked #26 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
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CONS:
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In terms of efficiency, Carolina's defense has allowed 4.30 yards per carry to opposing rushers (#10-least in football).The Carolina Panthers have stacked the box with 8 or more defenders 21.0% of the time this season, ranking as the #3 most in the league.
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NEUTRAL:
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Patterson has been the #33-leading rusher this season, tallying 44 yards per game on the ground.The Atlanta Falcons have had the #13-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.This offense runs the ball 38.1% of the time in a neutral context (#19 in the NFL), and they project to run 38.1% of the time in this contest.This offenses projects to runs 38.2% of the time in this contest (#20 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.The Carolina Panthers have ranked #18 against the run this year, holding opponents to 114 yards per game on the ground.Panthers defensive tackles have ranked #15 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Panthers linebackers have ranked #13 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Stacking the box with extra defenders is a common strategy defenses uses to stop the run, and the Atlanta Falcons have faced a stacked box 12.5% of the time this season -- #22-most in football.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 63.2 Rushing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 54.5% of the time.
The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $8.98. It's return on investment would yeild 9%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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