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Cooper Kupp Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 14
Arizona Cardinals vs Los Angeles Rams
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Cooper Kupp Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 97.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 94.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 97.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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Kupp has been on the field for 93.2% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #100 percentile among wide receivers.He has run a route on 96.2% of Los Angeles's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #99 percentile among wide receivers.His target share this season has been 32.1% -- #99 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.In terms of efficiency, he has put up 10.27 yards per target this season, ranking in the #91 percentile.Kupp has been in the #81 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 73.1% completion rate.The Los Angeles Rams have had the #7-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Rams project to run 64.4 plays in this contest, the #8-most of the week.Los Angeles is a 3.0 point underdog, indicating a passing game script.This offense passes the ball 66.2% of the time in a neutral context (#5 in the NFL).This offenses projects to pass 66.0% of the time in this contest (#3 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.Kupp's offensive line has been #3 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.The Rams offensive line has given the QB 2.57 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#5-most time in the league).
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CONS:
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Arizona's defense has allowed 135 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#28-most in football).Opposing wideouts have put up the #26-most yards per target (7.59) against the Cardinals this season.The Cardinals have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 64.8% of their targets this season, (#23-most in the league).Arizona Cardinals cornerbacks rank as the #9 unit in pass coverage.Arizona Cardinals safeties rank as the #8 unit in pass coverage.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Los Angeles Rams have run play-action on 23.0% of their passes this year, #26-most in the NFL.
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NEUTRAL:
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Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Kupp is projected for 0.5% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #66 percentile among wide receivers.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Los Angeles has faced the #21-most stacked boxes in the league this year (12.5%).
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 112.2 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 57.9% of the time.
THE BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $9.44. It's return on investment would yeild 8%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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