| |
Christian McCaffrey Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 12
Miami Dolphins vs Carolina Panthers
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Christian McCaffrey Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 70.5 (-120/-110) with an implied projection of 71.5 yards.
The money has been on the Over as it opened 70.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 70.5 @ -120.
|
|
|
|
|
|
PROS:
|
|
McCaffrey has been the #11-leading rusher this season, tallying 68 yards per game on the ground.He has been on the field for 63.3% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #94 percentile among running backs.He has received 60.3% of Carolina's carries this year -- #11 percentile when it comes to running backs.Carolina has played in the #9-most low-wind games (2 mph or less) this year. Teams tend to pass the ball more in low-wind conditions, artificially deflating their play-calling Run%, which should balance back out under normal conditions.This offenses projects to runs 47.3% of the time in this contest (#3 in the NFL) based on matchup dynamics.In terms of efficiency, Miami's defense has allowed 4.66 yards per carry to opposing rushers (#24-least in football).Dolphins linebackers have ranked #28 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
|
|
|
|
|
|
CONS:
|
|
The Carolina Panthers offensive line has ranked #28 in the NFL when it comes to run blocking this season.Dolphins defensive tackles have ranked #3 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Stacking the box with extra defenders is a common strategy defenses uses to stop the run, and the Carolina Panthers have faced a stacked box 19.9% of the time this season -- #4-most in football.The Miami Dolphins have stacked the box with 8 or more defenders 18.3% of the time this season, ranking as the #9 most in the league.
|
|
|
|
|
|
NEUTRAL:
|
|
Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, McCaffrey is projected for 1.3% more of his team's carry share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #73 percentile among running backs.The Carolina Panthers have had the #18-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Panthers project to run 62.6 total plays in this contest, the #15-most of the week.This offense runs the ball 39.9% of the time in a neutral context (#12 in the NFL), and they project to run 39.9% of the time in this contest.The Miami Dolphins have ranked #16 against the run this year, holding opponents to 111 yards per game on the ground.Dolphins defensive ends have ranked #14 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Dolphins safeties have ranked #13 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
|
|
|
|
|
|
PROJECTION:
|
|
THE BLITZ sees him putting up 78.3 Rushing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 55.3% of the time.
The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $1.64. It's return on investment would yeild 1%.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
ABOUT WRITENOW™
Create optimizable, relevant sports betting content at scale by automating your content generation process with WriteNow™. Designed and built by betting experts, WriteNow™ uses up-to-the-minute market data to develop stories that provide real-time betting insights and tell the story behind the numbers. WriteNow™ solves all your written content needs without the expense of an editorial team. The future of sports betting content is WriteNow™.
|
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
|
| |
|
|
|
