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Christian McCaffrey

Christian McCaffrey Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 12

Miami Dolphins vs Carolina Panthers
Christian McCaffrey Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 70.5 (-120/-110) with an implied projection of 71.5 yards.

The money has been on the Over as it opened 70.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 70.5 @ -120.
  • McCaffrey has been the #11-leading rusher this season, tallying 68 yards per game on the ground.
  • He has been on the field for 63.3% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #94 percentile among running backs.
  • He has received 60.3% of Carolina's carries this year -- #11 percentile when it comes to running backs.
  • Carolina has played in the #9-most low-wind games (2 mph or less) this year. Teams tend to pass the ball more in low-wind conditions, artificially deflating their play-calling Run%, which should balance back out under normal conditions.
  • This offenses projects to runs 47.3% of the time in this contest (#3 in the NFL) based on matchup dynamics.
  • In terms of efficiency, Miami's defense has allowed 4.66 yards per carry to opposing rushers (#24-least in football).
  • Dolphins linebackers have ranked #28 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.

  • CONS:
  • The Carolina Panthers offensive line has ranked #28 in the NFL when it comes to run blocking this season.
  • Dolphins defensive tackles have ranked #3 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
  • Stacking the box with extra defenders is a common strategy defenses uses to stop the run, and the Carolina Panthers have faced a stacked box 19.9% of the time this season -- #4-most in football.
  • The Miami Dolphins have stacked the box with 8 or more defenders 18.3% of the time this season, ranking as the #9 most in the league.

  • Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, McCaffrey is projected for 1.3% more of his team's carry share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #73 percentile among running backs.
  • The Carolina Panthers have had the #18-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.
  • The Panthers project to run 62.6 total plays in this contest, the #15-most of the week.
  • This offense runs the ball 39.9% of the time in a neutral context (#12 in the NFL), and they project to run 39.9% of the time in this contest.
  • The Miami Dolphins have ranked #16 against the run this year, holding opponents to 111 yards per game on the ground.
  • Dolphins defensive ends have ranked #14 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
  • Dolphins safeties have ranked #13 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.

    THE BLITZ sees him putting up 78.3 Rushing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 55.3% of the time.

    The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $1.64. It's return on investment would yeild 1%.

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