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Chris Godwin

Chris Godwin Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 12

Indianapolis Colts vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Chris Godwin Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 78.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 76.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 78.5 @ -115.
  • Godwin has been on the field for 84.5% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #90 percentile among wide receivers.
  • He has run a route on 91.3% of Tampa Bay's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #89 percentile among wide receivers.
  • His target share this season has been 19.5% -- #78 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
  • Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Godwin is projected for 4.0% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #90 percentile among wide receivers.
  • In terms of efficiency, he has put up 11.16 yards per target this season, ranking in the #100 percentile.
  • Godwin has been in the #90 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 80.7% completion rate.
  • Tampa Bay has played in the #5-most bad-weather games (rain, snow, or 15 mph+) this year, which saps receiver efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.
  • Indianapolis Colts safeties rank as the #29 unit in pass coverage.
  • This offense passes the ball 72.3% of the time in a neutral context (#1 in the NFL).
  • This offenses projects to pass 71.4% of the time in this contest (#1 in the NFL) based on matchup dynamics.
  • Godwin's offensive line has been #10 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.

  • CONS:
  • Indianapolis's defense has allowed 152 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#23-most in football).
  • The Buccaneers project to run 61.8 plays in this contest, the #23-most of the week.
  • Tampa Bay is a 3.0 point favorite, indicating a rushing game script.
  • Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have run play-action on 20.7% of their passes this year, #29-most in the NFL.
  • Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Tampa Bay has faced the #24-most stacked boxes in the league this year (12.5%).

  • Opposing wideouts have put up the #21-most yards per target (8.05) against the Colts this season.
  • The Colts have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 65.2% of their targets this season, (#22-most in the league).
  • Indianapolis Colts cornerbacks rank as the #17 unit in pass coverage.
  • The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have had the #13-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.
  • The Buccaneers offensive line has given the QB 2.43 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#12-most time in the league).

    THE BLITZ sees him putting up 97.0 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 61.1% of the time.

    The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $16.47. It's return on investment would yeild 14%.

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