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Chris Conley Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 15
Jacksonville Jaguars vs Houston Texans
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Chris Conley Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (-115/-115).
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PROS:
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In terms of efficiency, he has put up 9.07 yards per target this season, ranking in the #72 percentile.Opposing wideouts have put up the #4-most yards per target (9.27) against the Jaguars this season.The Jaguars have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 75.3% of their targets this season, (#1-most in the league).Jacksonville Jaguars cornerbacks rank as the #25 unit in pass coverage.The Houston Texans have had the #6-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.Houston is a 6.0 point underdog, indicating a passing game script.The Texans offensive line has given the QB 2.26 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#1-most time in the league).Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Houston has faced the #11-most stacked boxes in the league this year (15.7%).
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CONS:
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Conley has been in the #22 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 57.6% completion rate.The Texans project to run 61.8 plays in this contest, the #25-most of the week.This offense passes the ball 58.3% of the time in a neutral context (#27 in the NFL).Conley's offensive line has been #25 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.
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NEUTRAL:
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Conley has been on the field for 55.3% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #59 percentile among wide receivers.He has run a route on 54.8% of Houston's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #50 percentile among wide receivers.His target share this season has been 6.9% -- #38 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Conley is projected for 1.6% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #72 percentile among wide receivers.Jacksonville's defense has allowed 159 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#16-most in football).Jacksonville Jaguars safeties rank as the #13 unit in pass coverage.This offenses projects to pass 59.2% of the time in this contest (#17 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Houston Texans have run play-action on 24.6% of their passes this year, #20-most in the NFL.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 22.8 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 57.8% of the time.
THE BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $9.27. It's return on investment would yeild 8%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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