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Chester Rogers

Chester Rogers Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 12

New England Patriots vs Tennessee Titans
Chester Rogers Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 32.5 (-110/-120) with an implied projection of 31.8 yards.
  • Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Rogers is projected for 7.6% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #99 percentile among wide receivers.
  • Tennessee is a 7.0 point underdog, indicating an extreme passing game script.
  • The Titans offensive line has given the QB 2.32 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#2-most time in the league).
  • Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Tennessee has faced the #2-most stacked boxes in the league this year (21.8%).

  • CONS:
  • New England's defense has allowed 144 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#25-most in football).
  • Opposing wideouts have put up the #25-most yards per target (7.72) against the Patriots this season.
  • The Patriots have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 60.9% of their targets this season, (#27-most in the league).
  • New England Patriots safeties rank as the #3 unit in pass coverage.
  • The Tennessee Titans have had the #25-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.
  • The Titans project to run 61.5 plays in this contest, the #27-most of the week.
  • This offense passes the ball 57.0% of the time in a neutral context (#30 in the NFL).
  • Rogers's offensive line has been #27 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.

  • Rogers has been on the field for 44.4% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #47 percentile among wide receivers.
  • He has run a route on 62.1% of Tennessee's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #56 percentile among wide receivers.
  • His target share this season has been 9.2% -- #49 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
  • New England Patriots cornerbacks rank as the #11 unit in pass coverage.
  • This offenses projects to pass 61.3% of the time in this contest (#11 in the NFL) based on matchup dynamics.
  • Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Tennessee Titans have run play-action on 26.2% of their passes this year, #14-most in the NFL.

    THE BLITZ sees him putting up 40.8 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 58.1% of the time.

    The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $11.95. It's return on investment would yeild 11%.

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