| |
Chester Rogers Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 12
New England Patriots vs Tennessee Titans
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Chester Rogers Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 32.5 (-110/-120) with an implied projection of 31.8 yards.
|
|
|
|
|
|
PROS:
|
|
Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Rogers is projected for 7.6% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #99 percentile among wide receivers.Tennessee is a 7.0 point underdog, indicating an extreme passing game script.The Titans offensive line has given the QB 2.32 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#2-most time in the league).Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Tennessee has faced the #2-most stacked boxes in the league this year (21.8%).
|
|
|
|
|
|
CONS:
|
|
New England's defense has allowed 144 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#25-most in football).Opposing wideouts have put up the #25-most yards per target (7.72) against the Patriots this season.The Patriots have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 60.9% of their targets this season, (#27-most in the league).New England Patriots safeties rank as the #3 unit in pass coverage.The Tennessee Titans have had the #25-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Titans project to run 61.5 plays in this contest, the #27-most of the week.This offense passes the ball 57.0% of the time in a neutral context (#30 in the NFL).Rogers's offensive line has been #27 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.
|
|
|
|
|
|
NEUTRAL:
|
|
Rogers has been on the field for 44.4% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #47 percentile among wide receivers.He has run a route on 62.1% of Tennessee's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #56 percentile among wide receivers.His target share this season has been 9.2% -- #49 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.New England Patriots cornerbacks rank as the #11 unit in pass coverage.This offenses projects to pass 61.3% of the time in this contest (#11 in the NFL) based on matchup dynamics.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Tennessee Titans have run play-action on 26.2% of their passes this year, #14-most in the NFL.
|
|
|
|
|
|
PROJECTION:
|
|
THE BLITZ sees him putting up 40.8 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 58.1% of the time.
The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $11.95. It's return on investment would yeild 11%.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
ABOUT WRITENOW™
Create optimizable, relevant sports betting content at scale by automating your content generation process with WriteNow™. Designed and built by betting experts, WriteNow™ uses up-to-the-minute market data to develop stories that provide real-time betting insights and tell the story behind the numbers. WriteNow™ solves all your written content needs without the expense of an editorial team. The future of sports betting content is WriteNow™.
|
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
|
| |
|
|
|
