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CeeDee Lamb Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 18
Philadelphia Eagles vs Dallas Cowboys
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Right now, CeeDee Lamb Receiving Yards Prop is Over/Under 45.5 (100/-135), with an implied projection of 42.7 yards.
The money is on the Under: it opened 45.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 45.5 @ -135.
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PROS:
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In terms of playing time, Lamb ranks in the #67 percentile among wide receivers. He has been on the field for 66.6% of his team's snaps this season.In terms of route running, Lamb ranks in the #75 percentile among wide receivers. He has run a route on 81.6% of Dallas's dropbacks this season.In terms of earning targets, Lamb ranks in the #83 percentile among wide receivers. The QB has looked his way on 21.0% of passes this season.Lamb ranks in the #78 percentile and has put up 9.14 yards per target this season.As a unit, the Eagles safeties rank #25 in pass coverage.In a neutral context, Dallas has run the #1-fastest paced offense this season.The Dallas Cowboys are projected to run 68.6 plays in this matchup, the #1-most on the game slate.In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 64.3% of the time (#9 in the NFL).Dallas's O-Line grades out as the #1-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season, which impacts how much time their QB has to find Lamb open.
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CONS:
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This week, THE BLITZ projects Lamb for a -7.0% higher target share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.The Eagles's pass defense ranks #3-best in the NFL against wide receivers, allowing 130 yards per game this season.The Philadelphia Eagles have allowed 7.49 yards per target to opposing wide receivers this year: #7-highest among NFL opponents.As a unit, the Eagles cornerbacks rank #1 in pass coverage.The Cowboys enter as a 6.5 point favorite. This indicates a rushing game script.
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NEUTRAL:
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Lamb's 66.7% completion rate marks him in the #59 percentile among receivers.The Philadelphia Eagles rank #19-highest in the league in Completion% to opposing wide receivers this year at 66.8%.THE BLITZ projects Dallas to drop back to pass on 59.6% of their plays in this game (#19-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Lamb to exceed his player prop total 45.3% of the time. He projects for 40.4 Receiving Yards (on average) in this matchup.
While both sides have negative EV, THE BLITZ projects the UNDER to offer better odds. The expected value on the UNDER is -$6.53 with a negative ROI of -5%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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