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Byron Pringle Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 13
Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos
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Byron Pringle Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 23.5 (-120/-115) with an implied projection of 23.8 yards.
The money has been on the Over as it opened 22.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 23.5 @ -120.
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PROS:
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In terms of efficiency, he has put up 12.24 yards per target this season, ranking in the #99 percentile.Pringle has been in the #91 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 79.3% completion rate.Kansas City has played in the #3-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year, which saps receiver efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.Denver Broncos cornerbacks rank as the #27 unit in pass coverage.The Kansas City Chiefs have had the #4-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.This offense passes the ball 71.3% of the time in a neutral context (#2 in the NFL).This offenses projects to pass 62.7% of the time in this contest (#9 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.Pringle's offensive line has been #1 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.
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CONS:
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The Broncos have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 59.9% of their targets this season, (#30-most in the league).Kansas City is a 8.5 point favorite, indicating an extreme rushing game script.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Kansas City has faced the #31-most stacked boxes in the league this year (5.8%).
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NEUTRAL:
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Pringle has been on the field for 40.5% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #40 percentile among wide receivers.He has run a route on 44.4% of Kansas City's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #40 percentile among wide receivers.His target share this season has been 6.9% -- #39 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Pringle is projected for 2.4% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #86 percentile among wide receivers.Denver's defense has allowed 162 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#13-most in football).Opposing wideouts have put up the #20-most yards per target (8.00) against the Broncos this season.Denver Broncos safeties rank as the #16 unit in pass coverage.The Chiefs project to run 62.0 plays in this contest, the #21-most of the week.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Kansas City Chiefs have run play-action on 25.4% of their passes this year, #17-most in the NFL.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 29.4 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 56.6% of the time.
The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $4.56. It's return on investment would yeild 4%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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