|
Bryan Edwards Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 14
Kansas City Chiefs vs Las Vegas Raiders
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Bryan Edwards Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 31.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 33.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 31.5 @ -115.
|
|
|
|
PROS:
|
Edwards has been on the field for 78.7% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #81 percentile among wide receivers.He has run a route on 80.1% of Las Vegas's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #75 percentile among wide receivers.In terms of efficiency, he has put up 10.17 yards per target this season, ranking in the #89 percentile.Las Vegas is a 9.5 point underdog, indicating an extreme passing game script.This offense passes the ball 65.6% of the time in a neutral context (#7 in the NFL).This offenses projects to pass 64.7% of the time in this contest (#6 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.The Raiders offensive line has given the QB 2.41 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#11-most time in the league).Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Las Vegas has faced the #9-most stacked boxes in the league this year (16.3%).
|
|
|
|
CONS:
|
Edwards has been in the #19 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 57.0% completion rate.The Chiefs have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 62.9% of their targets this season, (#25-most in the league).Kansas City Chiefs cornerbacks rank as the #4 unit in pass coverage.Kansas City Chiefs safeties rank as the #9 unit in pass coverage.Edwards's offensive line has been #24 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Las Vegas Raiders have run play-action on 15.5% of their passes this year, #32-most in the NFL.
|
|
|
|
NEUTRAL:
|
His target share this season has been 10.0% -- #51 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Edwards is projected for 1.5% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #76 percentile among wide receivers.Kansas City's defense has allowed 150 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#21-most in football).Opposing wideouts have put up the #19-most yards per target (8.12) against the Chiefs this season.The Las Vegas Raiders have had the #20-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Raiders project to run 63.5 plays in this contest, the #13-most of the week.
|
|
|
|
PROJECTION:
|
THE BLITZ sees him putting up 33.2 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 51.7% of the time.
The BLITZ believes the OVER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the OVER is -$3.74 and with a negative ROI of -3%.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
ABOUT WRITENOW™
Create optimizable, relevant sports betting content at scale by automating your content generation process with WriteNow™. Designed and built by betting experts, WriteNow™ uses up-to-the-minute market data to develop stories that provide real-time betting insights and tell the story behind the numbers. WriteNow™ solves all your written content needs without the expense of an editorial team. The future of sports betting content is WriteNow™.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
|
|
|
|
|