| |
Ben Roethlisberger Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 16
Kansas City Chiefs vs Pittsburgh Steelers
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Ben Roethlisberger Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 243.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 255.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 243.5 @ -115.
|
|
|
|
|
|
PROS:
|
|
Roethlisberger has passed for 250 yards per game this year, #11-best in the league.Pittsburgh has played in the #5-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year, which artificially saps a quarterback's efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.The Pittsburgh Steelers have had the #9-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Steelers project to run 63.7 plays in this contest, the #10-most of the week.Pittsburgh is a 10.0 point underdog, indicating an extreme passing game script.This offenses projects to pass 65.1% of the time in this contest (#6 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.Ben Roethlisberger's offensive line has been #7 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.The Steelers offensive line has given Ben Roethlisberger 2.39 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#5-best in football).Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Pittsburgh have faced the #10-most stacked boxes in the league this year (16.1%).The Kansas City Chiefs enter this game with the #26-best pass defense this season, allowing 266 yards per game through the air.The Chiefs have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 71.6% of their targets, ranking #23-best in the NFL.The Kansas City Chiefs defense ranks #23-best in football in Yards per Target at 7.98.Kansas City's linebackers grade out as the #27-best in pass coverage this year.Chiefs defensive tackles have ranked #29 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
|
|
|
|
|
|
CONS:
|
|
Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Pittsburgh Steelers have run play-action on 19.6% of their passes this year, #30-most in the NFL.Kansas City's cornerbacks grade out as the #3-best in pass coverage this year.Kansas City's safeties grade out as the #7-best in pass coverage this year.Chiefs defensive ends have ranked #9 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.The Kansas City Chiefs have stacked the box on 8.7% of their plays this season, #28-most in the NFL. A stacked box makes quarterbacks more efficient, while a light box makes it more difficult for them to complete passes.
|
|
|
|
|
|
NEUTRAL:
|
|
He's been the #19-best in terms of Completion%, completing passes at a 65.8% clip.Efficiency-wise, Roethlisberger has been #26 in the NFL this season, averaging 6.77 yards per target.This offense passes the ball 62.1% of the time in a neutral context (#13 in the NFL).Chiefs linebackers have ranked #16 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
|
|
|
|
|
|
PROJECTION:
|
|
THE BLITZ sees Roethlisberger putting up 262.0 Passing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 56.7% of the time.
THE BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $6.95. Its return on investment would yield +6%.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
ABOUT WRITENOW™
Create optimizable, relevant sports betting content at scale by automating your content generation process with WriteNow™. Designed and built by betting experts, WriteNow™ uses up-to-the-minute market data to develop stories that provide real-time betting insights and tell the story behind the numbers. WriteNow™ solves all your written content needs without the expense of an editorial team. The future of sports betting content is WriteNow™.
|
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
|
| |
|
|
|
