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Ben Roethlisberger

Ben Roethlisberger Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 16

Kansas City Chiefs vs Pittsburgh Steelers
Ben Roethlisberger Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 243.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 255.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 243.5 @ -115.
  • Roethlisberger has passed for 250 yards per game this year, #11-best in the league.
  • Pittsburgh has played in the #5-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year, which artificially saps a quarterback's efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.
  • The Pittsburgh Steelers have had the #9-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.
  • The Steelers project to run 63.7 plays in this contest, the #10-most of the week.
  • Pittsburgh is a 10.0 point underdog, indicating an extreme passing game script.
  • This offenses projects to pass 65.1% of the time in this contest (#6 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • Ben Roethlisberger's offensive line has been #7 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.
  • The Steelers offensive line has given Ben Roethlisberger 2.39 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#5-best in football).
  • Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Pittsburgh have faced the #10-most stacked boxes in the league this year (16.1%).
  • The Kansas City Chiefs enter this game with the #26-best pass defense this season, allowing 266 yards per game through the air.
  • The Chiefs have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 71.6% of their targets, ranking #23-best in the NFL.
  • The Kansas City Chiefs defense ranks #23-best in football in Yards per Target at 7.98.
  • Kansas City's linebackers grade out as the #27-best in pass coverage this year.
  • Chiefs defensive tackles have ranked #29 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.

  • CONS:
  • Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Pittsburgh Steelers have run play-action on 19.6% of their passes this year, #30-most in the NFL.
  • Kansas City's cornerbacks grade out as the #3-best in pass coverage this year.
  • Kansas City's safeties grade out as the #7-best in pass coverage this year.
  • Chiefs defensive ends have ranked #9 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
  • The Kansas City Chiefs have stacked the box on 8.7% of their plays this season, #28-most in the NFL. A stacked box makes quarterbacks more efficient, while a light box makes it more difficult for them to complete passes.

  • He's been the #19-best in terms of Completion%, completing passes at a 65.8% clip.
  • Efficiency-wise, Roethlisberger has been #26 in the NFL this season, averaging 6.77 yards per target.
  • This offense passes the ball 62.1% of the time in a neutral context (#13 in the NFL).
  • Chiefs linebackers have ranked #16 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.

    THE BLITZ sees Roethlisberger putting up 262.0 Passing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 56.7% of the time.

    THE BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $6.95. Its return on investment would yield +6%.

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