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Austin Ekeler Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 12
Denver Broncos vs Los Angeles Chargers
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Austin Ekeler Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 59.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 62.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 59.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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Ekeler has been the #19-leading rusher this season, tallying 57 yards per game on the ground.The Los Angeles Chargers offensive line has ranked #3 in the NFL when it comes to run blocking this season.He has been on the field for 66.6% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #96 percentile among running backs.He has received 56.1% of Los Angeles's carries this year -- #19 percentile when it comes to running backs.The Los Angeles Chargers have had the #2-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Denver Broncos have stacked the box with 8 or more defenders 8.9% of the time this season, ranking as the #28 most in the league.
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CONS:
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Los Angeles has played in the #3-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year. Teams tend to run the ball more in windy conditions, artificially inflating their play-calling Run%, which should balance back out under normal conditions.This offense runs the ball 32.1% of the time in a neutral context (#29 in the NFL), and they project to run 32.1% of the time in this contest.This offenses projects to runs 37.4% of the time in this contest (#25 in the NFL) based on matchup dynamics.Broncos defensive ends have ranked #5 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Broncos defensive tackles have ranked #6 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Broncos safeties have ranked #9 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Stacking the box with extra defenders is a common strategy defenses uses to stop the run, and the Los Angeles Chargers have faced a stacked box 19.6% of the time this season -- #5-most in football.
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NEUTRAL:
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Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Ekeler is projected for 3.2% more of his team's carry share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #76 percentile among running backs.The Chargers project to run 62.0 total plays in this contest, the #22-most of the week.The Denver Broncos have ranked #13 against the run this year, holding opponents to 108 yards per game on the ground.In terms of efficiency, Denver's defense has allowed 4.43 yards per carry to opposing rushers (#16-least in football).Broncos linebackers have ranked #11 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 65.0 Rushing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 54.2% of the time.
The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $1.57. It's return on investment would yeild 1%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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