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Antonio Gibson Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 14
Washington Football Team vs Dallas Cowboys
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Antonio Gibson Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 75.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 66.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 75.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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The Washington Football Team offensive line has ranked #6 in the NFL when it comes to run blocking this season.He has been on the field for 56.1% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #84 percentile among running backs.He has received 60.2% of Washington's carries this year -- #12 percentile when it comes to running backs.Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Gibson is projected for 14.5% more of his team's carry share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks among the biggest increases among running backs this week.The WFT project to run 65.1 total plays in this contest, the #4-most of the week.This offense runs the ball 40.6% of the time in a neutral context (#11 in the NFL), and they project to run 40.6% of the time in this contest.Cowboys defensive tackles have ranked #32 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Cowboys linebackers have ranked #29 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Stacking the box with extra defenders is a common strategy defenses uses to stop the run, and the Washington Football Team have faced a stacked box 5.3% of the time this season -- #32-most in football.
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CONS:
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Gibson has been the #8-leading rusher this season, tallying 67 yards per game on the ground.Washington has played in the #4-most bad-weather games (rain, snow, or 15 mph+) this year. Teams tend to run the ball more in bad-weather conditions, artificially inflating their play-calling Run%, which should balance back out under normal conditions.The Washington Football Team have had the #23-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.Washington is a 6.0 point underdog, indicating a passing game script.Cowboys defensive ends have ranked #10 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
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NEUTRAL:
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This offenses projects to runs 40.6% of the time in this contest (#12 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.The Dallas Cowboys have ranked #13 against the run this year, holding opponents to 108 yards per game on the ground.In terms of efficiency, Dallas's defense has allowed 4.51 yards per carry to opposing rushers (#17-least in football).Cowboys safeties have ranked #18 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.The Dallas Cowboys have stacked the box with 8 or more defenders 15.1% of the time this season, ranking as the #15 most in the league.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 88.7 Rushing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 58.3% of the time.
The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $10.32. It's return on investment would yeild 9%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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