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Andy Dalton Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 13
Chicago Bears vs Arizona Cardinals
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Andy Dalton Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 214.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 222.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 214.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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The Bears project to run 64.2 plays in this contest, the #4-most of the week.Chicago is a 7.5 point underdog, indicating an extreme passing game script.
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CONS:
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Dalton has passed for 142 yards per game this year, #37-best in the league.He's been the #28-best in terms of Completion%, completing passes at a 63.0% clip.Efficiency-wise, Dalton has been #34 in the NFL this season, averaging 6.35 yards per target.This offense passes the ball 57.5% of the time in a neutral context (#28 in the NFL).Andy Dalton's offensive line has been #23 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.The Arizona Cardinals enter this game with the #4-best pass defense this season, allowing 218 yards per game through the air.Arizona's defense has been #3-best in terms of passing efficiency, allowing 7.00 yards per target to opposing signal-callers.The Arizona Cardinals have had the #10-best group of cornerbacks this season in terms of their pass coverage.The Arizona Cardinals have had the #8-best group of linebackers this season in terms of their pass coverage.Cardinals linebackers have ranked #3 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
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NEUTRAL:
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Chicago has played in 3 low-wind games (2 mph or less) this year (#14-most in football), which artificially improves a quarterback's efficiency and should lead to worse performance in normal conditions.The Chicago Bears have had the #20-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.This offenses projects to pass 58.6% of the time in this contest (#18 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.The Bears offensive line has given Andy Dalton 2.44 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Chicago Bears have run play-action on 26.9% of their passes this year, #13-most in the NFL.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Chicago have faced the #19-most stacked boxes in the league this year (#13.2%).The Cardinals have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 70.3% of their targets, ranking #15 in the NFL.The Arizona Cardinals have had the #11-best group of safeties this season in terms of their pass coverage.Cardinals defensive ends have ranked #11 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.Cardinals defensive tackles have ranked #19 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.The Arizona Cardinals have stacked the box on 12.1% of their plays this season, #22-most in the NFL. A stacked box makes quarterbacks more efficient, while a light box makes it more difficult for them to complete passes.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 191.3 Passing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 41.0% of the time.
The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the UNDER with an expected value of $11.79. It's return on investment would yeild 10%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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