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Alvin Kamara Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 14
New York Jets vs New Orleans Saints
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Alvin Kamara Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 70.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 69.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 70.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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He has been on the field for 71.0% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #97 percentile among running backs.He has received 62.7% of New Orleans's carries this year -- #10 percentile when it comes to running backs.New Orleans has played in 6 low-wind games (2 mph or less) this year (#5-most in football). Teams tend to pass the ball more in low-wind conditions, artificially deflating their play-calling Run%, which should balance back out under normal conditions.New Orleans is a 5.5 point favorite, indicating a rushing game script.This offense runs the ball 42.1% of the time in a neutral context (#6 in the NFL), and they project to run 42.1% of the time in this contest.This offenses projects to runs 54.7% of the time in this contest (#1 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.The New York Jets have ranked #30 against the run this year, holding opponents to 143 yards per game on the ground.In terms of efficiency, New York's defense has allowed 5.06 yards per carry to opposing rushers (#32-least in football).Jets defensive tackles have ranked #25 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Jets linebackers have ranked #32 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Jets safeties have ranked #28 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
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CONS:
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Kamara has been the #11-leading rusher this season, tallying 65 yards per game on the ground.Stacking the box with extra defenders is a common strategy defenses uses to stop the run, and the New Orleans Saints have faced a stacked box 18.3% of the time this season -- #6-most in football.The New York Jets have stacked the box with 8 or more defenders 21.9% of the time this season, ranking as the #2 most in the league.
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NEUTRAL:
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The New Orleans Saints offensive line has ranked #16 in the NFL when it comes to run blocking this season.Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Kamara is projected for -7.6% more of his team's carry share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks among the biggest increases among running backs this week.The New Orleans Saints have had the #18-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Saints project to run 61.1 total plays in this contest, the #21-most of the week.Jets defensive ends have ranked #12 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 83.0 Rushing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 58.2% of the time.
The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $10.22. It's return on investment would yeild 9%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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